Boeing forecasts global demand for 43,600 new commercial deliveries over the next 20 years, with narrowbodies grabbing an even larger share of the fleet than projected a year ago, the company's updated Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) shows.
The forecast, released June 14 on the eve of the 55th Paris Air Show, sees the fleet—defined at commercial jets certified for 50 or more seats—growing at an average annual rate of 3.1% through 2044. That translates into the current fleet of 27,150 aircraft expanding to 49,640 in 2044.
New deliveries will be split nearly evenly between aircraft pegged for replacement and capacity expansion, with 21,100 supplanting existing airframes and 22,500 expected for growth. The deliveries break down to 33,285 single-aisle aircraft, 7,815 widebodies, 1,545 regional jets and 955 freighters.
The 2025 figures are generally lower than last year's projections. Boeing's 2024 outlook saw 43,975 total deliveries: 33,380 single-aisle, 8,065 widebodies, 1,525 regional jets, and 1,005 freighters.
Boeing attributes the 3.3% drop in widebody deliveries to several factors.
“Long haul has absolutely been slower to recover from the pandemic shutdowns,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing's vice president of commercial marketing, in a June 10 briefing that was embargoed until the forecast's public release. “We've evaluated the long-term demand for widebody jets to be slightly lower than we did last year. The different risks involved with long-haul travel are just more sensitive to external factors than short-haul travel. But from a big picture standpoint, it's a relatively minor reduction ... that's why we do these outlooks every single year.”
The 3.1% fleet growth, down slightly from 2024's 3.2% CMO figure, is based on anticipated average annual GDP change of 2.3%—a figure Boeing takes from a blend of global economic forecasts. Last year's forecast was based on 2.6% average annual GDP growth.
Boeing's updated forecast calculates revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) growth of 4.2%, down from 4.7% in the 2024 version, and cargo ton kilometer (CTK) growth of 3.7%, down from 4.1% a year ago.
Boeing's outlook generally tracks with that of rival Airbus. The European manufacturer also reduced total deliveries slightly in its latest 20-year forecast, which sees a total of 43,420 deliveries through 2044. Airbus pegs 56% of forecasted deliveries as being for growth.
Boeing sees an accelerated pace of near-term deliveries due to lingering supply-chain and manufacturer-specific issues that have created bottlenecks for major programs. Boeing calculates a delivery deficit of about 1,500 aircraft due to issues dating back to 2019, when the 737 MAX was grounded and deliveries paused following two fatal accidents. The gap includes 1,200 narrowbodies and 300 widebodies.
Boeing is still recovering from years of disruptions and production slow-downs that have suppressed 737 MAX and 787 deliveries. A prolonged 777-9 certification program means the company's newest model is projected to enter service at least five years later than expected when it was launched in 2013. First deliveries are currently projected to start in 2026.
Fewer deliveries to China due to global trade tensions have also contributed to reduced deliveries out of Boeing, but recent signs suggest this may be easing. Boeing in recent days delivered a 787 to Juneyao Air, consultancy Aero Analysis Partners reported.
Airbus has been less affected in general, but A220, A320neo, and A350 delivery figures are lagging original projections due largely to supply chain issues. The company has nearly 40 completed A320neo airframes awaiting engines, for instance.
“In the near term, the industry's ability to return to pre-pandemic delivery or levels of production and then actually exceed those over the medium term is really a requirement to help offset the deficit of aircraft, and that probably takes at least until the end of the decade,” Hulst said.
“Bigger picture, the [difference] between passenger traffic growing at about 4% and the fleet growing at about 3% is really a reflection of our view of a continuation of airline innovation and aircraft innovation,” he continued. “We're going to continue to see airlines be more productive with their assets. Airplanes will fly further, they will fly longer, and they ultimately will fly with slightly higher average capacities.”
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