Dueling Forecasts for Business Aviation Differ in the Details

AlliedSignal, The CIT Group and Rolls-Royce all have industry forecasts circulating at NBAA this year. How do they compare?

Unfortunately, there's no easy comparison, as all use different time spans, research protocols and definitions. But by comparing charts and with a little interpolation, a few rough comparisons can be made.

AlliedSignal Aerospace projects continuing strong demand for new business aircraft, with deliveries approaching 6,500 units valued at nearly $78 billion over the next 10 years. Also driving demand is the rapid expansion of fractional ownership plans. The survey, for business jets weighing up to 100,000 pounds, sees a crest in deliveries during 1999 and 2000 driven by new and derivative models entering service soon.

AlliedSignal expects operators to take delivery of about 530 new business aircraft in 1998 and 580 next year, excluding airliner-based corporate aircraft such as the Boeing Business Jet and Airbus A319CJ. The subsequent "trough" will still show higher deliveries than in most previous peak years, according to Joe Leonard, president of AlliedSignal Aerospace marketing, sales and service.

Of the 10-year total, about 2,400 to 2,700 new aircraft will be powered by turbofans and the remainder by turboprops, AlliedSignal said. Strongest growth will be in the mid- to large-jet segment, such as the new Raytheon Hawker Horizon, and in the "entry level" category, such as the Sino Swearingen SJ30-2 and Cessna CitationJet.

The CIT Group, based in Livingston, NJ, is much more conservative. It projects deliveries of about 430 new jets and turboprops this year and 445 in 1999. CIT did not project further out.

Rolls-Royce didn't break down near-term deliveries, but included a wider range of aircraft in its coverage, from the single-turboprop-powered Piper Meridian to "bizliners" like the Airbus A319CJ.

Long-term, Rolls sees almost 10,000 new business aircraft deliveries, worth more than $131 billion, in the 20-year period through 2017. About 25% of these units will be light jets, 19% entry level jets and 16% medium jets. Heavy-medium and heavy jets make up another 19%, with bizliners and new superlight jets splitting the remainder.

The Rolls-Royce forecast included demand for business jets used in rapidly expanding fractional ownership plans. Many of the industry economic drivers cited were the same as AlliedSignal's. But Rolls also noted that noise problems will force the retirement of some larger jets. The company validated the effectiveness of the NBAA's "No Plane, No Gain" campaign by acknowledging the "growing recognition of business aircraft as a valuable tool."

The Rolls forecast is predicated on a retirement forecast of 3,580 jets over the same time period. Most of these were in the light and light-medium categories. Overall, the worldwide business jet fleet will grow at an average 3.9% per year over the 20-year forecast period, Rolls said, with a growth spike in 1999 and 2000.

Both prognosticators expect increased fleet hour utilization, with Rolls citing the base business aviation fleet flying 2.28% more hours a year and aircraft used in fractional ownership programs gaining flight time at a blistering 14% rate, admittedly from a small base. AlliedSignal's projection of TFE731 fleet hours showed four percent average annual growth worldwide through 2003 and slightly higher in North America. By 2003, world operators will be flying TFE731 engines a total of approximately 3.2 million hours a year.

By Paul Proctor