Fractional Sales, Says Rolls-Royce, Will Spur Market Aircraft Growth

Fractional ownership programs and the retirement of a significant number of first-generation business jets will drive the worldwide market for new corporate aircraft sales over the next 20 years, says Rolls-Royce/Allison. Fractional programs alone, the company says, will account for about 36 percent of that growth.

Between 1998 and 2017, Rolls-Royce predicts worldwide deliveries of 9,880 business jets, with 75 percent of these being entry-level jets, light jets, light-medium jets and medium jets. This year's forecast exceeds 1997's forecast considerably.

The engine manufacturer expects deliveries to peak at approximately 600 units in the year 2000 and to taper down during the remainder of the forecast period. At no time, however, are annual deliveries predicted to dip below 400 units.

In addition to the immense impact on the market of aircraft purchased for fractional ownership, Rolls-Royce forecasters say that a substantial percentage of new aircraft sales will be to replace '60s- and '70s-period aircraft. The older airplanes will be either scrapped or retired to supply parts, rather than enter the used aircraft market. The Rolls-Royce forecasters point out that it's often not economical, or in some cases even technically feasible, to upgrade first-generation aircraft to future or current equipment or modification standards. Such upfit issues as RVSM, communications and navigation system, and the environment can make it cheaper to simply buy a new aircraft.

Finally, the engine manufacturer sees general continuation of globalization and other market forces that have been positive for the growth of business jet sales and utilization in recent years.

By Gordon A. Gilbert