A huge selection of aircraft models, a runaway economy coupled with low fuel prices, cutbacks in some regional commercial service, a growing cadre of nouveau riche, and, oh yes, business aircraft fractional ownership programs are among the factors propelling the business aviation market's continuing unprecedented boom.

"Things are absurdly good," comments Richard Aboulafia, director of aviation studies at the Fairfax, Va.-based Teal Group.

How good? Teal predicts production of 5,067 business jets worth $64.5 billion in 1999 dollars over the next ten years. That's a better than 50% increase over the $40.2 billion worth of deliveries from 1989 to 1998. Of the business to come, more than 40%, when reckoned by dollar value, will be in high-end models.

The prosperity goes beyond what might be expected from stock market and corporate earnings factors. "The economic paradigms are all being broken," Aboulafia told Show News.

And Teal, if anything, is conservative. AlliedSignal, at last year's NBAA show in Las Vegas, predicted a market for 6,500 new business jets worth $78 billion over the next 10 years. Teal takes the AlliedSignal numbers into account, and also points to Rolls-Royce's forecast that 1998-2017 will see delivery of 9,880 business jets worth $131.6 billion.

Business jet buyers enjoy a selection now like never before. Bombardier offers the premium Global Express, the more modest RJ business models, the Challenger 604, and the Learjet series, with the new super-midsized Continental on the way. Dollar-wise, Bombardier is the biggest in the business with a forecast market share of 26% of the overall business jet segment, up from 19% over 1989-1998.

Cessna boasts what Teal calls "the strongest product line" in business jets after Bombardier, "thanks to its unparalleled ability to mix and match fuselages, wings and engines." Among Cessna's offerings are the CJ1, CJ2, Bravo, Citation VII and Citation X, the Excel, and the Ultra Encore, with the new Sovereign slated for 2002. Cessna Citations, by unit count, now comprise some 32% of the world business jet fleet, Teal says. Looking ahead, it will garner 19.1% of the market, dollar-wise.

Gulfstream offers fewer types but because it participates only at the top end with its G-IVSP and G-V-"a lucrative niche," says Teal-Gulfstream will have a 20.2% market share by value in the decade to come, even with only two models.

Dassault Falcon Jet is back in business jet prominence after a run of lean years. When production of the original twinjet Falcon 10/100/200 series ended, deliveries dropped from 46 planes in 1988 to what Teal calls "a mere 15 in 1993." Now it offers the Falcon 900C and 900EX, as well as the Falcon 2000 and 50EX. Deliveries totaled 51 aircraft in 1997, some 47 in 1998, and should top 60 this year. Dassault claims since 1997 it has sold almost 50% of all business jets in the highly competitive top market of $17 million and up, beating both Gulfstream and Bombardier with orders for 173 Falcons worth $4 billion in 1997-98 alone.

Teal's Aboulafia says that despite political posturing in France, Falcon Jet may become "a semi-independent U.S.-based company" -either through a share offering or fitting nicely with Cessna or Raytheon if it should be put up for sale.

Raytheon is seen as the weakest in terms of new business jet models, "for now." Its new Hawker Horizon, Premier One and most likely a pair of Premier derivatives will boost its dollar share for the coming decade to 12.2%, up from 10.8% this year. That's still well down from the 14.9% garnered by the former Beech (and Hawker) for the past ten years. Nevertheless, Raytheon will deliver more than 48 Hawker 800XPs and over 43 Beechjet 400A light jets this year; last year sales of all jet and Beechcraft models topped $2.6 billion. Raytheon is a powerhouse financially, and can afford to take any strategic direction upper management chooses, including combinations with other business aircraft manufacturers.

There are currently more than 18,800 business aircraft in service, and more than 9,180 are turbofans. There were 8,625 corporate flight departments in the U.S. as of August 31, up from 8,430 in March and well up from 7,126 in late 1995.

The figures - from AvData - represent true flight departments, with outfits like EJI/NetJets counted as one. Market growth thus goes beyond the fractional phenomenon, which according to Teal will soon account for 10% of the overall business jet fleet. "The last four to five years have seen unprecedented growth in the shipment of new aircraft and end users," said AvData sales and marketing VP Barney Byard, "including a lot of growth in traditional flight departments."

A host of variables makes it hard to gauge the ultimate impact of fractionals, which could depressing prices, hurt aircraft manufacturers over the long term, and maybe aggravate market cyclicality. They may, says Teal, someday account for 25% of the business jet market.

For now, things are great. "Next year might be even better," says Teal's Aboulafia, while his company maintains that even with the inevitable downturn a year or two from now, "the worst year of the coming ten years will be better than the best year between 1982 and 1996."