"Confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy, the continuous development and introduction of new jet models across the user spectrum, and the improved business conditions in Europe and Latin America" are the most important factors driving the business jet market, AlliedSignal's Rob Ruck said in an eve-of-show announcement.

As VP and general manager of business and general aviation at AlliedSignal, Ruck has surveyed more than 1,000 corporate flight departments, concluding that some 6,800 new jets, worth $89 billion, will be delivered between 2000 and 2010.

Deliveries will peak next year, remain steady at or near record levels, then begin climbing again. "Corporations around the world continue to expand their purchase expectations for business aircraft, both in the short-term and over the next 10 years," declared Ruck. "Many will choose AlliedSignal Aerospace products, such as our new AS900 turbofan and family of safety avionics, like EGPWS, TCAS and predictive windshear."

Short-term, deliveries of bizjets under 100,000 pounds maximum take-off weight will climb to about 605 this year and 680 next, compared with 510 in 1998. The five-year outlook is similarly buoyant, with between 2,900 and 3,300 sales for 1999-2003 -- up 59% on the 1,800 or so delivered in the previous period.

AlliedSignal's survey indicates that fractional ownership is expanding the operator base to embrace many first-time owners. Significantly, the company believes that rapid growth in this sector is still only skimming the surface of a deep reservoir. So far this year 200 new orders and options have been placed by fractional operators, but existing flight departments do not yet regard shared possession as a means of supplementing their service.

"The growing importance of aircraft as a business tool, the continued expansion of fractional ownership--which brings new customers to business aviation--and the development of ever more capable models, continue to stimulate customer demand," Ruck said.

Throughout the Western world, aircraft age and cabin size were the two reasons most regularly cited by operators planning new equipment, with better range and speed also important factors. North America's share of the five year market will actually decline some 4%, to 78%, but sharply increased aspirations in Europe and Latin America will more than make up for this shortfall.
Last year, European operators said they planned to replace or expand 17% of their existing fleets. Now they forecast a 29% upgrade over the next five years, partly as the consequence of a two-year downwards revision of planned 'sell by' dates.

The position in the Latin world is even more dramatic. Here, replacement age has plummeted 12 years and upgrade expectations risen from 14% to 25% of current fleets since last year.
Not surprisingly, AlliedSignal's survey foresees strong demand for ' such entry level' jets as the Cessna Citation CJ1/CJ2, Raytheon Premier, Sino-Swearingen SJ30-2 and VisionAire Vantage. A market for 1,200 is forecast up to 2010, boosted by the potential of new, low-cost turbofans becoming available towards the end of the period. Top-of-the-range turboprops may see their sales figures dented by this trend.

Next up, the light/light-medium market continues to show strength, offering 2,400 sales of jets like the Cessna Citation Bravo/Encore/Excel, Learjet 31A/45 and Beechjet 400A. Midsize aircraft can look forward to deliveries of 1,700 units, benefiting especially the Bombardier Continental, Cessna Citation X, Dassault Falcon 50EX, Hawker Horizon and IAI Galaxy, but also Cessna Citation VII/Sovereign, Hawker 800XP and Learjet 60.

Of heavy metal, the large class (Canadair Challenger 604 and Dassault Falcon 2000) could sell 600 more over the coming decade, gaining some ground from continued strong fractional interest. The ultimate 'jumbo and global' range -- exemplified by the Bombardier Global Express, Dassault Falcon 900C/EX and Gulfstream IVSP and G-V -- is marked for 886 deliveries.

NBAA's convention theme this year is "Approaching the New Millennium." AlliedSignal's Business Aviation Market Outlook indicates its members may do so with confidence.