Honeywell has issued a business jet market forecast for
years at the NBAA Convention, but now that there is a new class of jets around,
the question is what to call the category and how to classify it for analysis.
Honeywell solved this by coming up with two categories: corporate aviation and
ultra-light jet, determined by price rather than weight, a Honeywell spokesman
said.
In this year's business aviation outlook the company
included "corporate aviation," defining them as aircraft costing more than $2.5
million per year, among other parameters such as cabin volume. Honeywell
identified nearly 2,000 of these that might be sold over the next 10 years
through 2015.
Honeywell defines an ultra-light jet as one costing $2.5
million or less. Thus, Adam, Eclipse, Diamond and Epic are in a separate
category (ultra-light jets) from the Cessna Citation CJ1 and the smaller
Mustang (which has a B/CA equipped list price of $2.53 million), considered
"corporate aviation."
A Honeywell survey focused on 600 general aviation aircraft
operators who were asked about the likelihood of purchasing an "ultra-light
jet" in the next 10 years. The upshot is that Honeywell estimates as many as
4,600 owner-flown ultra-light jets will be purchased over the next 10 years,
and 900 for corporate use, or more than twice as many "corporate aviation"
aircraft. Whether these classification schemes will take hold in the industry
outside the Honeywell survey is hard to say.
