Rolls-Royce unveiled its 20-year forecast on Wednesday,
projecting 15,000 aircraft deliveries and growth in all sectors, from very
light jets to BBJs. The projections represent about $300 billion in aircraft
sales and $61 billion in engine sales (about 48,000 engines). The company says
OEMs are on track to deliver more than 700 aircraft this year, but the number
could break 800 next year, setting a new record.
Rolls-Royce says it based the optimistic outlook on positive
trends of major indicators— the economy, the number of used aircraft, OEM
profitability and growth in fractionals. Used aircraft, after reaching 17% of
the active fleet in 2002, are now at 11% and decreasing. The fractional sector
is expected to continue strong, taking 80 to 100 aircraft per year. The company
says emerging international markets, primarily China, India and Russia, will
play a larger role in deliveries, although political and/or regulatory issues
could affect the numbers. Rolls-Royce expects China, India and Russia combined
to take delivery of 500 to 700 business jets over the next 10 years, starting
from only 80 aircraft in the region at present. Traditionally, North America
takes about 75% of the deliveries, though Rolls-Royce expects that share to
decline.
As for Rolls-Royce itself, officials say the company will
continue to focus on jet engines for medium to large jets, despite its
projections for well over 10,000 very light jets, entry-level jets and light
jets to be delivered through 2024. Officials say that segment of the market is
already served by other OEMs, and that lower aircraft values don't currently
provide a good business case for investing in the sector.
