Two brand-new companies surprised NBAA this week, each of them unveiling plans to build a supersonic business jet (SBJ) by 2012. The announcements by Aerion and SAI follow years of work and study, much of it conducted in secrecy, and underline the fact that much of the industry is taking the SBJ very seriously indeed.
The new-start companies both aim to use their proprietary technology to win a leading role in an industry-wide consortium that will build the SBJ. Both will need an engine supplier (Aerion has already teamed with Pratt & Whitney) and both expect to team with an established commercial aircraft manufacturer, probably a business jet supplier. That means that they are in a race to put together a credible team to build, power and—most importantly—fund the new airplane.
And the winner takes all. If there is one point on which almost everyone in the SBJ universe agrees, it is that the maximum number of successful SBJ projects is no greater than one. Market studies consistently settle around 300-500 airplanes in 10 years, a very nice market for one program (at $80 million a pop), but not enough to support two.
Aerion and SAI agree on range (4,000 nmi delivers one-stop trans-Pacific and nonstop U.S. to Europe) and a speed of Mach 1.6 to Mach 1.8. The big difference is low-boom design. SAI has hired the Skunk Works to design a vehicle that can fly supersonically over land, with no restrictions. Aerion sees that approach as too risky and questions whether the advantage is worth the extra weight and cost (including a new engine).
The new starts differ in their strengths and weaknesses. Lockheed Martin is a technology giant and one of the acknowledged powerhouses in low boom; Aerion designer Richard Tracy toiled within a tiny company for years before Robert Bass decided to invest. But Bass has a track record as a successful investor, and the fact that Tracy withstood his exhaustive due-diligence examination says a great deal.
Neither are Aerion and SAI the only players in the game. There are several other airframers with some SBJ work under way: Gulfstream, currently on its own; Boeing, working with Sukhoi; Raytheon, which is associated with Northrop Grumman's military supersonic studies; Cessna; Sino-Swearingen; and Dassault.
Their approaches vary widely. Some contenders are taking the view that short flight times obviate the need for a big cabin; others argue that the SBJ clientele is simply not going to ride anything smaller than a Gulfstream 2. Gulfstream regards 6,000-foot runway capability as essential. Aerion and SAI are both looking at fairly near-term development of a larger airplane, a mini-Concorde, for airline use; others are not thinking along those lines.
Some participants insist that a government-funded, low-boom X-plane has to fly and prove that the "sonic whoosh" is acceptable, before the SBJ project is fully launched. But one executive points out that NASA is the only possible sponsor, and while NASA Langley might have ambitions in that direction, there is zero hope that either NASA HQ or Congress will support anything seen as "toys for rich boys." The U.S. Air Force is interested in supersonic cruise, but not in low boom, and military sponsorship could be a poisoned chalice, leading to export restrictions.
Several participants have already suggested that the SBJ consortium needs to be international—with U.S., Asian and European participation—in order to forestall political and environmental resistance. It's a worthy goal, but not without its complications in terms of technology transfer (high-temperature engine materials, for instance) and politics, especially in the middle of a U.S.-Europe aerospace trade war.
Earlier this summer, GE's chief of advanced engine programs, Harvey Maclin, remarked that the next year or so would be "very interesting." That was clearly a massive understatement.
