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Sweden's Mighty Air Force Cut to Ribbons as Defense Spending
Slashed
It was once among the largest air forces in the world, and even
when the current commander of the Swedish Air Force, Major Gen.
Jan Andersson (the Inspector General) joined up in 1976, his nation
could boast 28 squadrons of Swedish-built jet fighters. In a few
years time there will be just four front-line squadrons left, thanks
to a new round of defense "realignments" to be announced
in December. Sweden's regular cycle of "defense decisions"
(as they are known) has seen the SAF cut back progressively through
the 1990s from 16 to 12 to eight squadrons. Now the most positive
predictions for the future will see the SAF become a three-wing
air force, with three active air bases. These figures are predicated
on an expected SEK3Bn ($405.6 million) cut in the SAF's annual budget,
which runs at about SEK40Bn ($5.4 Bn). What goes unspoken is that
a nuclear option of even more severe cuts up to SEK6 Bn ($811 million)
is possible, although not likely. Gen. Andersson says this eventuality
is unthinkable and would result in a "defense force that is
unrecognizable," but even the expected downsizing will leave
the SAF as a shadow of its former self.
The army and navy will be cut also, with the new force structure
to be in place by December 2007. Gen. Andersson's estimates predict
an operational combat force of just 128 Gripens, down from the current
level of 160 (in eight squadrons). Sweden has bought and paid for
204 Gripens, with the last of the enhanced JAS 39C/D variants to
be delivered in 2007/08. From that total, 28 jets have already been
allocated to the Czech Republic and Hungary under lease-to-purchase
deals. This leaves Sweden with 179 available aircraft (one JAS 39A
has been lost in a crash)-72 JAS 39C/Ds and 107 JAS 39A/Bs. Were
Sweden to move to a combat force of 128 Gripens, plus an operational
reserve, that alone would call for around 140 aircraft.
However, Sweden plans for 20 aircraft per squadron, so four combat
squadrons would need only 80 aircraft. The SAF will maintain a training
unit at above squadron strength (perhaps 30 aircraft)-by this estimate,
the SAF can make a case for retaining only 110 Gripens (plus a reserve).
The SAF's doctrine will remain focussed on the twin strands of
national defense and increased international cooperation and deployability.
Gen. Andersson and his commanders are relying on the technological
superiority of their fighting force to keep Sweden punching above
its weight. Yet the cutbacks have huge implications for morale,
sustainability and Sweden's entire industrial base.
—Robert Hewson
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