Boeing has short-listed five airframe companies -- only one of
them in the U.S. -- for the new Dreamliner program, the company
announced here on Monday. Fuji, Kawasaki, Mitsubishi, Alenia and
Vought will work with Boeing for the rest of the year to divide
up manufacturing work on the airliner's majority-composite airframe.
Another important decision-the number of engine types to be offered
on the airplane-may not be taken until the end of the year. "I
can guarantee it won't be three-a three-way competition is a bloodbath,"
says Mike Bair, senior VP for the new program. "It's two
versus one, and there are a bunch of pros and cons. One engine
costs less, but you lose the advantages of continued competition.
With two engines you don't have all your eggs in one basket."
Boeing talks about an all-new engine for the Dreamliner, delivering
at least an 8% fuel-burn improvement over the engines used in
that airplane class today, but Bair acknowledges that-so far-engine
manufacturers are talking about derivatives or new engines based
on current but proven mature technology. "It's a balance,"
he says. "We'll push the envelope to the extent that it makes
sense."
The Dreamliner will be a tightly optimized "point design,"
tailored to act as a fleet companion to the successful 777, according
to Bair. Boeing does not have to provide for range or capacity
growth that would take the Dreamliner into the market sector already
covered by the 300-seat 777-200LR, so the new airplane can be
made lighter and more efficient, he says. One option still under
consideration is to design the outer 10 feet of each wing so that
it can be removed-short-haul operators don't need the full-span
wing.
Major technical and industrial choices on the Dreamliner should
all be taken this summer. Boeing has already announced that the
airplane will be largely made from composite materials.
Bair's prediction for the Dreamliner's systems layout is that
"it will have mixed hydraulic and electric systems."
In this respect the airplane will be similar to the A380, which
has dual hydraulic systems with electrically powered back-ups.
It will also have "very limited or no pneumatic systems,"
with no engine bleed air (thus improving engine efficiency) and
an electrically powered air-conditioning and pressurization system.
It will make the greatest possible use of distributed computer
control, using shared data buses rather than dedicated wiring.
One controversial decision is Boeing's choice of a final assembly
site for the Dreamliner. Since May 16, when the manufacturer issued
its criteria for that decision, Bair says, "there are very
few states that haven't asked-even some that have a hard time
understanding what a port is." Proximity to a round-the-clock
port capable of handling major airplane subassemblies is essential,
and a deep-water port is clearly preferred. Another important
requirement is reasonably predictable flying weather and an absence
of potentially catastrophic conditions such as earthquakes or
tornadoes.
In any event, the final assembly line won't employ anything like
the numbers who work on Boeing airplanes today. "The numbers
will be dramatically less, between 800 and 1,200 Boeing jobs,"
says Bair. The Dreamliner will be assembled from large components
"stuffed" with subsystems, and much of that fitting-out
work may be carried out by suppliers. Both in design and manufacture,
Boeing expects suppliers to carry out more detailed integration
work than they have done in the past. Bair suggests that suppliers
might decide to co-locate their Dreamliner production with the
final assembly line.
Bair responds circumspectly to questions concerning financial
incentives offered to Boeing by state governments. Kansas has
offered a $500 million bond issue if Boeing places Dreamliner
work in Wichita-and the state would be repaid out of payroll taxes
that Boeing would normally pay, bond or no bond. It's a sensitive
issue for Boeing, which has long protested about alleged subsidies
to its competitor.
"It's important to realize that Kansas was not so much about
the Dreamliner as about our operation in Kansas, trying to position
themselves to be a preferred supplier," says Bair. In-house
Boeing operations are being assessed in competition with outside
suppliers. The bond discussions "were an independent initiative
by [VP and general manager of the BCA Wichita Division] Jeff Turner,
to make sure he was as well positioned as other partners,"
notes Bair, adding, "We don't have any specific criteria"
for state aid. "We're not out looking for who can write us
the biggest check. This is a 20-, 30-, 40-year program, and what's
important is the ongoing business climate."
Boeing's performance target for the Dreamliner is 20% better fuel
burn than the 767-300-which it will replace in Boeing's line-up-translating
to a 10% improvement in operating costs. "Out of that 20%,
about 8% is from the new-generation engine," says Bair, "and
6% is in the rest of the airframe," resulting from using
new design technology to tailor the aircraft precisely to its
mission with minimum weight. Boeing is designing the Dreamliner
to compete effectively with a re-engined A330-200.
Boeing intends to make the Dreamliner "identical to the
777, from the pilot's viewpoint," Bair says. It will have
back-driven control yokes "with the same part numbers as
the 777." The company intends to develop a common rating
for the Dreamliner and 777, so those operators can freely interchange
flight crews between the two airplanes.
Bair says that the initial Dreamliner will be "within a seat
row or two" of the 767-300, which seats 218 passengers in
a three-class layout, but will have range and speed similar to
the 777-300ER. A stretched version will have around 250 seats,
competing directly with the A330-200. Boeing expects to launch
the airplane in the first half of next year, with service entry
in 2008.
