The June 16-22 Paris air show is expected to emphasize the aerospace-defense industry's economic concerns rather than new technical achievements. Moreover, French President Jacques Chirac will be opening a show clouded by political tensions with the U.S.

The organizers nevertheless expect exhibits and attendance to be very close to the record levels set two years ago. Air Show Commissioner General Yves Bonnet said the number of exhibitors will be virtually the same as the 2001 event while square footage will be slightly above. About 1,800 companies will be exhibiting and, in addition to booths and aircraft parking space on the airport's apron, have reserved 491 hospitality chalets, down from 504 two years ago. Leased surface space will be no more than 3-5% below 2001 figures, Bonnet said.

The biggest drop may be in the static and flying exhibits and the number of trade visitors. Last week, 176 aircraft had been registered for the show, down from 226 in 2001, according to Jean-Luc Joly, chief executive of Salons Internationaux de l'Aeronautique et de l'Espace (SIAE), the company that manages the air show. The straitened economy plays a significantly bigger role than political tensions, Joly stressed. In an indication that such difficulties extend well beyond the aerospace industry, he noted that the number of companies exhibiting at Cebit, a German annual trade show for information and telecommunications technology, plunged 50%. SIAE and Hannover Fairs USA, Cebit's U.S. arm, recently signed a marketing agreement that, in the long term, could further strengthen the list of exhibitors.

Aircraft appearing for the first time include the Airbus A340-500 and A318, Embraer's 170/175 regional jets, Grob's seven-seat G160 Ranger single turboprop business aircraft and Vulcanair's newly completed VF600W, an Italian utility aircraft. Eurocopter will display for the first time the EC755 while Indian Aerospace Industries is expected to highlight its ALH helicopter.

An Air France Concorde is scheduled to make its final in-flight presentation over Le Bourget on May 14, the show's official opening day. The supersonic transport will remain at the static display before being donated to the air and space museum here. Concorde was displayed for the first time at the 1969 show.

In the absence of major new programs, beyond the traditional objective of providing a business forum, the 45th Paris air show is expected to be dominated by discussions centering on post-Iraq war transatlantic divergences.

The U.S. Defense Dept., in sharp contrast to its participation in prior shows, has slashed its presence to a bare minimum: an F/A-18 Super Hornet, AV-8B Harrier, AH-64D Apache Longbow, a C-17A and, perhaps, a B-1B bomber. According to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, this reduction is the result of "the press of other events," a thinly veiled reference to the political disagreement between the U.S. and France. Pentagon officials, who never referred to a retaliation move, declined to further comment on the matter or indicate that curtailing show participation was related to France's position on Iraq.

The White House and Defense Dept., disregarding suggestions that the U.S. should boycott the show, adopted a compromise. The size of the Pentagon's participation will be significantly smaller than the usual 11-18 aircraft and only personnel below the general officer rank will be allowed to attend. A congressional ban of the show, promoted by Rep. Jim Saxton (R-N.J.), did not materialize.

Airbus is expected to soon reinstate its plan to deliver 300 aircraft/year in 2003-04. The 380-seat A340-600 is currently the Europeans' biggest commercial transport.

However, the absence of Lockheed Martin's F-16 Fighting Falcon is viewed by Europeans are a potent symbol of U.S. backlash. The YF-16 technology demonstrator--General Dynamics' submission in the Lightweight Fighter program--made its first public appearance at the 1975 air show, was jointly procured that year by Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway and Denmark and remained a show classic for an uninterrupted 28 years. Recently, Poland acquired 48 F-16s in an indication that the light fighter's presence in European inventories is assured for many more years.

With no U.S. military aircraft participating in the daily flight demonstrations, this year's show could lose part of its appeal for the general public. Exclusive of general aviation and helicopters, only a dozen aircraft are scheduled to be demonstrated each afternoon. They include Europe's archrival combat aircraft, the Eurofighter/Typhoon and Dassault Aviation's Rafale, as well as the Russian Sukhoi Su-27SK, Saab's Gripen and the MiG-AT advanced military trainer. Airbus plans to demonstrate several commercial transports while Boeing will stick to a long-standing policy of not participating in the flight program.

Paradoxically, the U.S. and France will join in celebrating the first century of flight. Orville and Wilbur Wright's historical achievement, the first powered, sustained and controlled flights, met with worldwide recognition after they they stayed for several months in France. A replica of the Wright brothers' Flyer will be prominently displayed along with other historic aircraft such as a Bleriot XI, Charles Lindbergh's Spirit of St. Louis, World War II combat aircraft and a DC-3.

The economic downturn affects the show more seriously than a transatlantic dispute could, Joly stressed. "We understand that [U.S. political] reprimands are a way to chastise the French political position. This was the best place to do so because the Paris air show provides the highest visibility." However, the show will not suffer from the political fallout, he asserted.

ON THE OTHER hand, Bonnet acknowledged that there have been "a few cancellations" by U.S. firms, mostly from small-size companies citing economic reasons. Despite the announced intention of five major firms not to attend--two because they preferred to put limited resources into the recent European Business Aviation Conference and Exhibit in Geneva--and the scaled-back U.S. military presence (AW&ST May 12, p. 22), "there doesn't seem to be a big difference [in U.S. participation] from two years ago," Bonnet said. In fact, for the first time, an entire hall will be dedicated to the 180 U.S. exhibitors that also reserved 111 hospitality chalets.

In the aftermath of the war with Iraq, institutional casualties are still being scrutinized by political analysts and aerospace-defense companies' top executives. For example, leaders of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the U.S. and Europe should determine the legitimacy of differences that erupted in the last few months. European industry executives, however, prefer to display a "politically correct" stance to fit all expectations. Only Dassault Aviation's top executives recently have acknowledged that French-U.S. political tensions could endanger Falcon business jets' position in the North American market.

Snecma Moteurs and NPO Saturn will jointly develop and produce the 13,500-17,500-lb.-thrust SM146 turbofan. The Russian Regional Jet will be the engine's first application.

In a similar vein, Europeans in the last few weeks declined to elaborate on the resumption of trade issues that are believed to be revived by the Iraq-related dispute of the U.S., France and Germany. U.S. Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) recently called for the Commerce Dept. "to investigate Airbus' claims to be a significant contributor to the U.S. aerospace industry." She was referring to the European manufacturer's assertion that it has as many as 800 suppliers and vendors in the U.S., a supplier chain sustaining 100,000 jobs and injecting $5 billion/year in the U.S. economy. Murray stressed that the Commerce Dept. could not identify more than 250 U.S. firms working with Airbus and "could only verify 500 of the 100,000 jobs claimed to have been created in the U.S." A request for further information was sent to Airbus, U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Grant D. Aldonas said.

Additional U.S. protests are looming, including initiatives to revive a dormant controversy on state aid. U.S. and European Union policymakers in mid-1992 concluded an agreement governing (and curtailing) the governments' financial support for new commercial transports. Emergence of the A380 mega-transport, which is scheduled to make its maiden flight in less that 18 months, has awakened U.S. concerns about procedures that could distort competition. The A380's overall development cost is $10.7 billion, at 2000's economic conditions, including $2.5 billion in refundable loads jointly provided by France, Germany, the U.K. and Spain.

Earlier this month, an unrelated issue caused transatlantic tensions to escalate. Airbus Military's politically-driven decision to select the Europrop International consortium's TP400 to power the A400M airlifter infuriated United Technologies' (UTC) top executives as well as such U.S. politicians as Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.). Pratt & Whitney Canada, a UTC unit, expected to win the competition after submitting a significantly cheaper turboprop fully meeting the A400M's operational requirements. Moreover, P&W-Canada was planning to largely "Europeanize" the proposed PW180 while Germany's MTU Aero Engines was expected to have final assembly responsibility for the 10,600-shp. turboprop. The 11th-hour decision to retain the TP400 was ranked as an act of protectionism, a transgression against free-trade rules.

THIS YEAR'S SHOW is also expected to underscore the need to further consolidate the European aerospace-defense industry. Growing economic difficulties in the commercial space market, which has been badly hit by plunging sales of telecommunications spacecraft, have resulted in massive job cuts as well as talks set to lead to more merger agreements. Alcatel Space and Astrium, EADS' satellite arm, seek to forge an agreement rapidly while Arianespace is expected to be restructured and revamped in the next few months (AW&ST May 5, p. 24).

This week, a European space summit could contribute to forging a revised space strategy to be completed by year-end. It could support a plan to add the command of space to the European Union's (EU) constitution currently in the preparation phase. Such a plan is tied to the Europeans' Green Paper on Space stressing space programs' importance to the EU and the need to further unify the policy of the EU and European Space Agency.

Italy is also advancing consolidation under Finmeccanica/Alenia Aerospazio's umbrella. The state-controlled group recently acquired full control of Aermacchi, an advanced military trainer manufacturer, and forged a tentative agreement to jointly acquire FiatAvio with the U.S. Carlyle Group. Only mid-small-size companies such as Piaggio Aero Industries, Microtecnica and Vulcanair remain independent.

Despite criticism from other European players, Italy's aerospace-defense primary goals continue to be dominated by a compromise strategy involving close links with EADS as well as partnerships with U.S. companies. This trend could be further strengthened by a joint venture by AgustaWestland and U.S. helicopter manufacturer Bell Textron to produce the EH101 in North America.

Belying the morose economic climate, show organizers have invested heavily to reduce traffic congestion and improve exhibitor comfort, Joly said. Enhancements include:

• Dedicated exhibition areas grouping companies featuring uninhabited aerial vehicles, ground support equipment and other specialized activities;
• A bouquet of offerings, dubbed Platinum Services, to smooth the way for VIP visitors;
• Expanded restaurant, exhibition hall, shopping and press facilities;
• Additional services such as distributed Internet hookups in exhibit halls and preregistration for trade visitors;
• Revamped road access and additional parking and entryways.

On the other hand, visitors and exhibitors will have to put up with sharply expanded security measures and, perhaps, SARS-related health checks, Joly said.

Michael A. Taverna and Andy Nativi contributed to this story.