It's another airshow, so it must be time for Boeing to unveil
its latest idea for an improved 747, intended to prevent the 37-year-old
design from being caught in a lethal squeeze play between the
777-300ER and the A380.
Announced here on Monday by VP of marketing Randy Baseler, the
747 Advanced would use engines and materials from the Dreamliner.
That would allow it to meet the tightest noise rules-including
London-Heathrow's QC2 standard, which the A380 meets and the current
747 doesn't-as well as reducing operating costs by up to 5% and
improving performance.
A two-to-three-row body stretch would bump capacity up to 440
seats, opening up a little more airspace between the 747 and the
777, and the aircraft would have enough range to link the U.S.
East Coast and Asia non-stop.
Timing of the new project is uncertain-Boeing intends to discuss
the 747 Advanced with customers over the next two years-but if
it uses the Dreamliner's new engines it is unlikely to appear
before 2008. The 747 Advanced is the fourth 747 derivative to
be floated in the last three years. The stretched 747X was withdrawn
in March 2001, the minimum-change 747-400XQLR did not win any
customers and the 747-800X barely saw the light of day.
Presenting Boeing's latest market forecast, Baseler reiterated
the company's belief that there is a bigger market in the next
20 years for an under-500-seat airplane like the 747 than for
the A380. Airlines will handle traffic growth with more, smaller
airplanes providing more city-to-city connections, says Baseler,
and Boeing expects that only 320 A380-sized airplanes will be
sold for passenger flights. Asked how many more A380s Airbus will
have to sell before Boeing revises its predictions (116 A380 orders
have been booked since launch), Baseler says: "We'll see
whether all those get delivered."
