Next year will likely mark the beginning of recovery for the business
aviation industry, with sales of new jets expanding steadily to
7,700 worth $115 billion by the end of 2013.
That's the latest forecast from Honeywell Aerospace, which typifies
the outlook as one of slow but sustained expansion. Deliveries next
year will be similar to this year's 450-500 new aircraft, but will
edge toward the higher end of that range. Deliveries in 2005 are
expected to be in the range of 530 to 560 aircraft. While these
figures are down sharply from the record 769 aircraft rolled out
by the factories in 2001, deliveries will reach similar levels later
in the decade of nearly 800 aircraft a year.
Honeywell noted the current business aviation recession follows
a record boom over the last five years, in which the business aircraft
industry witnessed the most explosive expansion in its history.
The new forecast excludes VVIP aircraft of more than 100,000 pounds
gross takeoff weight such as BBJs, and doesn't count the burgeoning
demand for microjets such as the Eclipse (although it does include
Cessna's new Mustang light jet).
"Strong new model backlogs, continuing expansion in fractional
ownership in North America and Europe, coupled with an expected
strong economic recovery, remain key factors supporting a longer-term
outlook for growth," said Bob Johnson, president and CEO, Honeywell
Aerospace.
Manufacturer backlogs now stand at 1,500 aircraft, with about 40%
attributed to fractional ownership programs. Close to two-thirds
of the backlog is for new models such as the Challenger 300, Gulfstream
150, Citation Sovereign, Citation Mustang, Falcon 7X and Hawker
Horizon.
"The past year has shown the true depth of business aviation's
strength and durability," Johnson said. "Despite softening
of order rates and declining deliveries, businesses continue to
invest in the future. Honeywell is currently tracking more than
20 additional all-new or derivative business jet programs that are
in various stages of study or preliminary design, many of which
are expected to enter service during the next ten to fifteen years.
This does not include the half-dozen microjet programs in the public
domain plus others under consideration."
Among the forecast's highlights:
Orders: will likely improve in 2004 and boost
backlogs, but will not likely translate into higher aircraft deliveries
due to supply chain ramp-up limitations.
Deliveries: 2005 will mark the beginning of a slow but
sustained expansion.
Fractionals: By 2012 some 10% of the world's active bizjet
fleet will be fractionals. Near term demand from fractionals accounts
for 15% of annual deliveries but could grow to 20% by 2012.
VVIP aircraft: About 125 commercial transport aircraft
configured as business jets, worth $7.3 billion, will be delivered
between 2003 and 2012. These include BBJs and ACJs.
Long-Range and Ultra Long-Range: Deliveries will average
around 100 per year for a total of 1,044 by the end of 2013. Aircraft
in this category include the Gulfstream 500 and 550, Global 5000
and Global Express, and the Falcon F7X, 900EX and 900C.
Large: Deliveries will total 770 aircraft at an average
70 a year. This category includes the Challenger 604, Gulfstream
300, Falcon 2000, Falcon 2000EX, and Legacy.
Medium and Medium Large: Some 2,250 aircraft will be
delivered by 2013. Annual delivery rates will grow rapidly, from100 to about 280 per year by 2013.Models include the
Bombardier Challenger 300, Citation X, Gulfstream G100, G150 and
G200, Falcon 50EX, Hawker Horizon, Citation Sovereign, Hawker
800XP and Learjet 60.
Light and Light Medium: Deliveries will approach 2,100
aircraft by 2013. Aircraft in this market include the Hawker 400XP,
Citation Bravo, Citation Encore, Citation Excel, Learjet 40, and
Learjet 45/45XR.
Very Light: Deliveries will average 145 aircraft annually
after an initial 80 per year for the next several years. Volume
will ramp up from 2006 when the Cessna Citation Mustang begins
to enter service with a large backlog. A total 1,560 jets in this
class will be delivered by 2013, including the Cessna CJ1 and
CJ2, Beech Premier I, and the Sino Swearingen SJ30-2.
Ultra Light: A whopping 8,000 ultra light jets could
be delivered by 2013 if the market takes off. Emerging ultra light
jets include the Eclipse, Safire Jet, and Diamond D-JET.
