Sukhoi to Increase Combat Aircraft Exports, Plans Fifth Generation Fighter

Russia's Sukhoi, in cooperation with arms exporter Rosoboronexport, intends to win overseas sales of 450-500 'Su' fighters valued at $17 billion between now and 2010, Sukhoi director general Mikhail Pogosian told Show News.

Exports of Sukhoi's combat aircraft are currently showing strong growth. About 50% of Russia's $3.68 billion total billings for arms exports in 2000 was accounted for by the airplanes. That rose to 60% in 2001, totaling some $4 billion according to preliminary estimates.

In the period to 2010, Sukhoi will continue selling to its traditional markets in China, India and Vietnam, but will also promote its aircraft to other Southeast Asian countries. Noting that Sukhoi views the Southeast Asia market as "most promising," Pogosian cited South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia as potential sales targets.

Russia, along with the United States, will remain a major player on the global combat aircraft market over the next ten years, Pogosian predicts. Sukhoi's share could be 12% to 16% of total sales.

Pogosian believes that it is imperative to speed-up the work on a fifth-generation Russian fighter if Russia is to maintain its status as a high technology country and retain its strong position on the world aircraft market.

Development of a new Russian fighter should be pursued "with the goal of achieving a reasonable trade-off between cost and combat effectiveness, and with regard to market demand," Pogosian told Show News. "It is essential to attract off-budget funds, making the program open to international cooperation."

The driving force behind the need for launching the fifth-generation fighter program stems from the fact that as from 2010 Russia's 'fourth plus' and 'fourth plus-plus' generation fighters will face strong competition from the Joint Strike Fighter that could radically change the whole world fighter market. Pogosian predicts that if JSF production starts on schedule in 2010, its total output of 5,000-6,000 aircraft will eventually squeeze other types from the global sales market.

Sukhoi has recently completed conceptual design of an advanced tactical aircraft (ATA) that has been submitted to the Russian competition committee. Pogosian says that to be competitive and to win an appropriate market share, the new ATA should be cheaper than the JSF, and outperform it in terms of combat effectiveness.

"Provided the price tag for the JSF is in the range of $45-50 million, the Russian ATA should cost $35-45 million," said Pogosian. Development and construction of four flying ATA prototypes will cost about $ 1.5 billion, he estimates.

For development and production of the ATA to be profitable, he forecasts a minimum domestic market for 500 aircraft and no less than 1,000 for export customers.

"Sukhoi has outlined ATA sales targets on the domestic and world markets, but I would not like to give specific figures until these are agreed upon with the state customer, the Ministry of Defense," he said.

By Nikolai Novichkov