Rolls-Royce Forecasts $465 Billion Civil Engine Market Over Next Two Decades

Latest studies by engine maker Rolls-Royce reveal a sharp upward swing in the predicted market, thanks to Asia's generally rapid recovery from recession and anticipated liberalization in Asian air travel. Needs are now estimated as 100,000 engines valued at $456 billion for large aircraft, regionals and business jets over 20 years. Bizjets alone are expected to account for 30,000 power plants, costing $50 billion.

"The forecast shows continuing and growing demand across civil aerospace markets, and we are well-positioned to compete in all sectors," commented RR's Chairman, Sir Ralph Robins.

A further factor increasing expectations is the expansion of air travel, predicted to be at 5.1% per year. Over the next 20 years, 11,000 new large (100 or more seats) and regional aircraft will be needed to replace retirements, but there will be a further 17,000 built to accommodate growing demand. A 6.5% annual expansion in freight aircraft is expected to account for 1,000 new airplanes, and the corporate market will add 14,000.

In terms of numbers, engines between 22,000- and 45,000-pounds-thrust will predominate over the next two decades, but greatest sales value will come from those rated above 65,000-pounds-thrust.