$7.5 Billion Market for FLIR, Says Teal

Teal Group Corp predicts the U.S. market for forward-looking infrared (FLIR) targeting will total some $7.5 billion from 2001 to 2010, in a new Airborne FLIR Systems Forecast the company released in conjunction with the Paris Air Show.

"The U.S. airborne FLIR market will almost double from about $500 million per year to about $900 million between 2001 and 2010," said Dr. David Rockwell, senior electronic analyst for the Group's Military Electronics Briefing. The publication contains some 300 reports on individual U.S. electronics programs, including about 40 on FLIR.

"The fighter FLIR market settled out somewhat when Raytheon's Terminator ATFLIR was chosen for the F/A-18E/F, and then the C/D, raising Raytheon to the premier-but not dominant-position in the market, above traditional leader and LANTIRN manufacturer Lockheed Martin," said Rockwell. But when the USAF's advanced targeting pod (ATP) requirement inched toward becoming a comprehensive LANTIRN replacement, Lockheed Martin's future in the business was put in greater jeopardy, according to the report.

The company does not have a major customer for its third-generation FLIR, Sniper (or Pantera, in foreign markets). With stiff competition from Terminator and Northrop Grumman's Litening and Litening II pods, Lockheed Martin could drop out of the fighter market entirely if it loses the advanced target pod competition.
It will retain its dominance in the attack helicopter market with its Arrowhead and Hawkeye target systems, but those amount to little more than $100 million per year.

Northrop Grumman, though new to the market, has gained a surprisingly large market share since it teamed to offer Litening on Rafale. "Their Litening II could win ATP," Rockwell said.

Rockwell predicted a market for internal FLIRs aboard advanced F-16s will be strong in the latter half of the decade. Teal predicts the program could be worth more than $100 million a year from mid-decade on.