Boeing 's New Delta IV Launcher

PARIS AIR SHOW 2001

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Boeing 's New Delta IV Launcher

Competition among the world's launch companies will intensify following massive cutbacks of forecasted space business over the next few years. The downturn comes at the same time companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Ariane are investing heavily in new rockets designed to make it cheaper to put satellites into orbit.

"In 1999 there were 600 more satellites projected for launch in 2000-2010 than there are today," Jim Simpson, director of international sales for Boeing Delta launch services, told Show News.

That view is echoed by Ronald Maehl, senion business development VP at Boeing Satellite Systems. While the number of transponders is going up about 10% a year, they are going on larger satellites such as the Boeing 702 that can carry 100 instead of the smaller Boeing 376 that carries only 20 to 30, he said.

The Teal Group, which analyzes aerospace markets, in its latest study counts a total of 2,160 payloads proposed for launch to Earth orbit during the next 10 years. While up slightly from last year's total of 2,147 payloads for 2000-2009, a 68% increase in the number of micro payloads of 0.1 to 100 kilograms which masks a 31% decline in commercial communications satellites as plans for new constellations were scrubbed.

Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Space Systems Briefing, cautioned: "If you really need a forecast regarding the satellites that are going to be launched during the next 10 years, then pick a nice round number like 1,000. That's probably about right, assuming the market is not flooded by thousands of nanosats in the next few years."

Against this background, price into orbit can be a decisive factor, Boeing believes.

Boeing's Delta IV "is as low cost as any system out there except perhaps the Chinese," said Simpson, coming in at around $19,000 per kilo to GTO. For comparison (although direct apples-to-apples figures are difficult to determine), Arianespace is on record with a price of $140 million for 5.5 tons, equivalent to $25,454 per kilo.
-- J.M.

Boeing can still make money with its new Delta IV launcher -- despite the lowest price-to-orbit prices satellite operators have ever seen.

That's the claim of Jim Simpson, director of international sales for Boeing's Delta Launch Services. "It's a rather flat market for the mid-term, and the most competitive I have ever seen," he says. Which hardly seems like a good time to be investing in a new rocket-unless it's cheap to build, and reliable.

The Delta IV, Simpson says, is both.

Due to make its first flight next March, the Delta IV has already racked up an impressive order book. It won the lion's share of the initial $1.38 billion government Enhanced Expendable Launch Vehicle services contract in October 1998, and is booked to handle 22 of the 28 launches slated through fiscal 2006. "And our commercial backlog exceeds that from 2002 to 2010," Simpson adds.

Boeing can launch a maximum of 17 Delta IVs a year out of Cape Canaveral alone, leaving Simpson with 70 launch slots still seeking customers. "That will be very hard to do," he admits. "Fortunately our cost allows us to price competitively and still make money. It is good to know we can be competitive in a price war environment."

The Delta IV has recently scored some milestones in testing, overcoming earlier problems stemming from vibration in the turbopumps of its new Boeing Rocketdyne liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen RS-68 motor. The engine and central booster core were mated and the engine fired successfully for 303 seconds, emulating profiles of both a medium- and a heavy-lift launch.

Boeing's family of launchers began with the Delta II, which first flew some 40 years ago. Comprehensive modernization programs mean that nothing but its diameter is old, according to Simpson. It can loft payloads of 898 kg to 2,064 kg to GTO. Five versions of the Delta IV add a wide capability from 4,201 kg to 13,130 kg-a range unmatched by any other launch provider, Simpson adds. This means Boeing has a greater capability of tailoring the rocket to the payload and mission for maximum efficiency and lowest cost.

By John Morris


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