Rolls-Royce Sees Bright Outlook For Business Jet Deliveries

Rolls-Royce has published its 20 year business jet forecast here at NBAA, and despite many worries within the sector, it is a remarkably up-beat document.

The forecast calls for delivery of 14,330 new corporate jets and 31,000 engines to power them through to the year 2020, with a market value of around $52 billion at current prices.

"The market has remained relatively steady over recent weeks and despite a short-term reduction in deliveries of some business jet types, a recovery to normal delivery volumes is expected after the near term rate adjustments are implemented," Rolls-Royce says.

In fact the forecast says that prospects for business jet deliveries look slightly better than in earlier analyses because of the recent stronger interest in business jet use for reasons of security and convenience.

Rolls says the current corporate jet firm order backlog equates to around three years production for the industry, and some fractional programs extend deliveries even further.

The market drivers are down to three major factors, according to the engine maker:

• a greater acceptance of business aviation as the economic cycle turns up again,
• sustained development of fractional programs,
• and sustained replacement demand, which will be generated as significant numbers of older aircraft are retired during the forecast period.

On future deliveries the forecast says that business jet owners will form 65% of the market, while fractional ownership will make up the remaining 35%. Stronger fractional growth outside the U.S. is also forecast.

Rolls-Royce expects the U.S. to decrease its share of the world corporate jet market by 7% over the next twenty years from its current 75% as demand grows in other regions.

The report expects a major shift away from entry, light and light-medium executive jets, which account for 75% of today's fleet, to only 55% of future deliveries. The shift will be towards larger aircraft, (which includes the Boeing Business Jet and Airbus A319CJ), which will represent up to 45% of future deliveries.