Rolls-Royce Crystal Ball
Polishes Helicopter Sales

Rolls-Royce has become more optimistic in its rolling 10-year view of the world's turbine helicopter industry, raising its forecast for deliveries between now and the end of 2010 to 9,805 aircraft.

This time a year ago it was anticipating 9,036 deliveries by the end of 2009. Much of the increase is due to it now including in its military forecast major engine-related upgrade programs, turbine engined rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicles and non-police law enforcement deliveries, reflecting an increased use of armed helicopters for roles such as border patrol.

Civil helicopter deliveries are projected at 5,175 aircraft with an airframe value worth $15.3 billion and the associated market for turboshaft engines estimated at $2.0 billion. The civil forecast excludes non-police paramilitary deliveries and transfers, contributing to the four percent decrease compared to last year's forecast. Underlying demand over the next decade is marginally higher at one percent.

Turbine singles will lead the civil market with 55% of total worldwide deliveries, followed by light twins at 24%. Civil deliveries will average 530 aircraft a year after 2003 in what will remain an essentially flat market with average annual growth of 1.1%.

Growth will be somewhat stronger in the military sector at 5.5% a year, where nearly half of all military deliveries will be heavy, multi-engined rotorcraft, followed by intermediate twins at 24%.

Rolls-Royce projects 4,630 military helicopter deliveries from 2001 to 2010, worth $57 billion in airframe value and $3.9 billion for turboshaft engines.

Of these, 70% or 3,235 are forecast to be new-build helicopters, with 1,395 being major upgrades. Underlying demand for military helicopters is up seven percent over last year's forecast, reflecting the maturation of a number of major delivery programs.

"We expect the civil market to continue showing strength but remain relatively flat in terms of new helicopter deliveries and new aircraft model introductions," said Stuart Mullan, president of Rolls-Royce Helicopter Engines. "However, usage of existing aircraft continues strong." Rolls-Royce expects the fleet powered by its Model 250 to hit a cumulative 150 million operating hours this year.