Honeywell Five-Year Forecast of Euro Bizjet Demand

Deliveries of jumbo and global class business aircraft-Falcon 900C and 900EX, Gulfstream IV-SP and V, and Global Express)-will account for about 10% of European purchases over the next five years, increasing their market share by about 3% over the 1999 outlook, says the year 2000 Business Aviation Market Outlook from Honeywell Aerospace. The company expects the market to achieve a near-term peak as initial pent-up demand is satisfied.

Such other large business jets as the Falcon 2000 and Challenger 604 will take about 30% of the European market over the next several years, Honeywell says. Fractional ownership programs could contribute significantly to demand in this segment.

Honeywell pegs demand for medium and medium-large jets at 3% of the European market through 2004-a 17% reduction in market share compared to its 1999 predictions. Most of the reduction is attributed to "extraordinary delivery levels in recent years and the impact of lower purchase expectations," coupled with some program delays.

The medium-large or "super midsize" class, which includes the Bombardier Continental, Citation X, Falcon 50EX, Galaxy and Hawker Horizon, has large market growth potential due to high perceived customer value, according to Honeywell. The medium segment includes aircraft popular in the fractional ownership markets such as the Hawker 800XP, Learjet 60 and forthcoming Cessna Sovereign.

OEM backlogs continue to expand in the light and light-medium class. Honeywell anticipates that these will enjoy a 33% share of European deliveries over the next five years. Aircraft in this class, such as the Beechjet 400A, Citation Bravo, Encore and Excel, and Learjet 31A and Learjet 45 showed strong survey interest in all regions, and the market should continue to be stimulated by the introduction of new models.

European demand for entry level jets remains strong, with significant growth potential accounting for a forecast 20% of European deliveries during the next five years-up 7% from the share projected in 1999. Aircraft in this market segment include the Century Jet, Cessna CJI and CJ2, Raytheon Premier I and Sino-Swearingen SJ30-2.

Emerging "microjets" such as the Eclipse and Safire S-26 were not included in the Honeywell survey, as the company perceives their promise of "the exciting possibility of ultra-low cost solutions" as appealing primarily to the owner-flown, high-end piston and entry level turboprop markets rather than to corporate operators.