China's Arms Development Influences
Asian-Pacific Defense Procurement

Asian Aerospace 2000 -- While financial and economic problems in the Asia-Pacific region have limited recent military procurement programs, local political instability, proliferation of mass destruction weapons, and territorial disputes have served to intensify the imperatives to maintain, if not increase, current levels of arms spending.

Apart from China's ongoing refusal to recognize Taiwanese independence and its rights for arms procurement, plus Indonesia's precarious political situation accompanying East Timor independence, other potential flashpoints include territorial disputes over the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea, and the Paracel Island group, slightly further north.

Flanked by Brunei, China, Vietnam and the Philippines, both island groups are valued for their potential oil and natural gas, as well as fishery resources. China is already claimed as exploiting some as sites for forward military bases, to rectify the PRC's shortfalls in long-range attack weapons. A further complication is the international agreement on extension of Exclusive Economic Zones to 200 nmi from national shorelines, which could result in conflicts of interest in certain areas. Increased revenues from fishery, mineral and commodity resources may also be offset by quantum growths in surveillance, patrol, search and rescue, pollution control, policing and protection responsibilities.

China's massive presence plays a pivotal role in defining most of the defense requirements of its immediate neighbors. Its economy has been less affected by economic problems than adjacent areas, as indicated by continued increases in its nominal military budgets over the past few years. Although the announced totals do not include all defense expenditure, they have grown steadily from $7.6 billion in 1995, $8.6 billion in 1996, and $9.64 billion for 1997, although leveling-off at $9.8 billion instead of a planned $10.99 billion in 1998.

Long-overdue modernization of China's armed forces-still oversized, despite recent reductions-is nevertheless making slow progress. Cuts of some 75% by 2005 from a mid-1990s Air Forces of the People's Liberation Army (AF/PLA) strength of some 4,500 aircraft, have been forecast by senior US defense officials, with corresponding reductions from almost 75% to 22% in second-generation fighters within the overall totals.

Major steps in this process began in 1992 with a $1.7 billion order for 36 Sukhoi Su-27SK single-seat air defense/superiority fighters and 10 Su-27UBK two-seat combat trainers, with close-combat Vympel R-73E (AA-11 "Archer") and medium-range semi-active radar-guided R-27R (AA-10 "Alamo") AAMs. These are now being supplemented by Vympel R-77 (AA-12 "Adder") medium-range AAMs, introducing active radar-homing technologies into the region. Assembly from a $2.5 billion five-year licensed production program of some 200 Su-27SKs, known locally as J-11s, has also recently begun from KnAAPO-supplied components at the Shenyang Aircraft Plant.

A new $1.85 billion follow-on contract signed last December for up to 45 KnAAPO-built Su-30MKK two-seat multirole fighters, without canards and thrust-vectoring, for delivery from 2002, was expected to include precision-guided ASMs, including rocket/ramjet-powered Zvezda Kh-31P (AS-17 "Krypton") long-range (100 nmi+) anti-radar missiles. Su-30 provision for air refueling will finally give the AF/PLA a credible, if small, strategic strike force, other than about 40 DF-31 and other ICBMs and 100 or so obsolete Xian H-6s (Tupolev Tu-16s), assuming funding allocations for Ilyushin Il-78 "Midas" tankers become available to supplement six converted H-6s.
A Beriev-converted A-50I version of the Il-76 is also being developed by IAI in Tel Aviv with Elta Phalcon 360-degree phased-array radar in a fixed dorsal radome as a prototype platform for the AF/PLA's long-standing Project "Ring" AWACS requirement. This will involve at least three more aircraft, each costing some $250 million. Other Russian procurement has included eight batteries of Almaz S-300PMU (SA-10 "Grumble") and 15 Tor M-1 SAM/ABM units.

Work is continuing on several indigenous Chinese military aircraft projects, although most are far removed from production and AF/PLA service. Of those so far revealed, the twin Rolls-Royce Spey (WS-9)-powered Xian JH-7 or FBC-1 strike/interceptor made its public debut in late 1998, and only seven development aircraft are believed to have flown. More advanced in concept is the multi-role Chengdu J-10, based on Israel's abandoned Lavi fighter project, and using its avionics and radar, although powered by a Saturn Lyulka A-31F turbofan. Flight development started in March 1998.

Shenyang is still touting its upgraded F-8 IIM heavy all-weather fighter, with little success, and lacking significant Western participation, slow progress has been reported with joint Sino-Pakistani programs for the Klimov RD93-engined FC-1/Super 7 MiG-21 derivative, or the K-8 Karakoram turbofan-trainer. Production of the upgraded cranked delta-wing Chengdu F-7MG, as the export version of the J-7EBs equipping some AF/PLA units, including its aerobatic team, has reportedly been launched from a Pakistani order for up to 100.