Alenia and Lockheed Martin say their C-27J Spartan should be able to win 48% of the market for that size of transport.

The total market for the C-27J-class transport over the next 20 years is estimated to be 500 aircraft, said John Hodges of the Lockheed Martin Alenia Tactical Transport Systems joint venture. LMATTS' C-27J is expected to win at least 240 of those orders, he added, although the joint venture obviously will try to win more.

Negotiations for the launch order with Italy are in their final phase. LMATTS has already begun building the first 10 aircraft. Italy is planning an initial buy of a dozen, although they may be bought in two lots rather than one. A follow-on order is also possible.
Greece is deciding whether to buy a small transport. It is interested in 15 aircraft. Switzerland is seen as another potential near-term customer, with an order for two aircraft and five options up for grabs. A request for proposal from Malaysia is pending, but an order is not expected for another two years.

The C-27J and its competitors suffered a setback when Australia cancelled its RFP. The Canberra government is reassessing its defense programs, and the RFP may be reissued next year.

Hodges said the C-27J program business model was based on around sales of 200 aircraft. However, Alenia officials said its break-even point is around 70-80 aircraft.

Two C-27Js are at Farnborough. The first production aircraft is being used for static display, while the other flies in the air show. As part of the flight test program the aircraft has accumulated 100 flights and about 200 flight test hours.

Envelope expansion has reached maximum speed and altitude. However, LMATTS is considering raising the maximum altitude from 30,000 ft to 35,000 ft to meet customer requirements. The third C-27J is expected to fly for the first time next month, after which it will join the test program.

Lockheed Martin's executive VP for customer requirements, Tom Burbage, said he wants to build on the C-27J relationship. Possibilities include maritime patrol programs or the Joint Strike Fighter.

By Robert Wall