The outlook for production of rotorcraft over the next decade is mixed. In the near term, manufacturers can be expected to continue to see high levels of production through 2010 as they work through backlogs. After that, the effects of turmoil in the economy are likely to bring a normal cyclical downturn to the industry.

From 2011-13 the production of rotorcraft, including aircraft sold to both the civil and military markets, is expected to drop sharply, reaching a nadir around 2012-13. In 2014, the industry should be back on an upswing, with increased production expected for the remainder of the 10-year forecast period. Overall, Forecast International projects manufacturers will build more than 22,000 rotorcraft over the next 10 years, including piston- and turbine-powered civilian and military aircraft.

Eurocopter’s U.S. subsidiary has begun delivering its UH-72A Lakota variant of the EC145 to the U.S. Army for its Light Utility Helicopter program.Credit: EUROCOPTER

Earlier in the decade, a combination of a sluggish economy and the disruption of the aerospace sector overall post-9/11 sent shipments of commercial rotorcraft into decline, but that trend was reversed beginning in 2003. Since then, deliveries have been on the upswing, and business has been so good that rotorcraft companies recently have been far more concerned with finding the manufacturing capacity to meet demand than they have with finding new orders. This will change over the next five years, and 2009 is likely to be the high-water mark for the rest of the decade.

This view sounds grimmer than it actually is. Demand for helicopters is extraordinarily strong, but will ebb as part of the normal economic cycle. But, the need to replace aging models will prevent production levels from returning to the lows of the dark days of 2002, even during the expected decline.

Facing mature markets in North America and Europe, manufacturers are looking to emerging economies in China, India and Russia as a source of market growth. The demand from India and China is likely to have a substantial impact over the next 10 years, with India offering greater opportunity for growth in the near term than China. Rapid growth in the Chinese economy is creating rising wealth and an emerging business class, and the use of helicopters in the long term is likely to become as widespread there as in other parts of the developed world. But in the near term, the regulatory environment and infrastructure needed to allow helicopter operations will hamper the development of the Chinese rotorcraft market.

The Russian helicopter market is filled with aging Soviet-era designs and could provide a ready market for large numbers of Western-built aircraft. Large numbers of Kamov Ka-26s and Mil Mi-2s are nearing the end of their service lives. A growing number of aircraft from Western makers are being certificated in Russia, though high import duties continue to be an impediment. These are unlikely to be removed, as the government remains committed to protecting domestic production. But, joint production agreements such as last year’s pact with AgustaWestland to produce the AW139 outside Moscow could be beneficial.

At the low end of the light commercial market, Robinson controls entry-level training and utility segments. Enstrom’s and Schweizer’s slightly more expensive and powerful piston products compete with Robinson’s.

Piston helicopters have accounted for about half of light commercial rotorcraft shipments in recent years, but represent only a small portion of the market’s value because of their low cost. Above the pistons are entry-level single turbines from Enstrom and Schweizer. They compete with more expensive turbine singles such as Bell’s 206 series and Model 407, Eurocopter’s EC120 and AS350 series, AgustaWestland’s AW119, and MD Helicopters’ MD500 series and MD600N.

Above the turbine singles are the light twins such as the AW109 Power, EC135 and EC145, and the new Bell 429. Intermediate twins follow and include popular models such as AgustaWestland’s AW139, the Bell 412 and Sikorsky S-76, and Eurocopter’s AS365/EC155. Positioned between the two classes of twins is the MD Helicopters Explorer.

Piston- helicopters and turbine helicopters in the light civil market have been produced in roughly equal numbers in the past few years but over the next decade, turbines will grab a modest chunk of the market share from pistons. Turbines are more expensive to purchase than pistons but offer more power and payload. There also will be a shake-up at the lower end of the turbine market as Robinson enters the fray with its planned R66 model and Sikorsky subsidiary Schweizer introduces the Model 434. Both can be expected to add to the competition at the entry level of the turbine market just as Bell is planning to end production of its 206B JetRanger.

The lack of revolutionary new technology pushing the rotorcraft market remains troublesome, but seems to revolve around the industry’s tendency to focus on the traditional main rotor/tail rotor configuration and ignore the advances that have been made in avionics, engine technologies and maintenance systems. Operators in the civil market will be focused far more on increased performance in hot and high environments, safety and lower operating costs than on the extra speed offered by tiltrotor aircraft such as Bell/Agusta’s BA609 or Sikorsky’s X2 coaxial compound helicopter technology.

The civil market for medium/heavy commercial rotorcraft will be small in unit production when compared with the other segments of the rotorcraft market. Commercial operators take delivery of relatively few medium/heavy machines because of their higher acquisition and operating costs. Those aircraft in most demand are generally versatile, multirole models that are capable of satisfying a wide range of requirements. The segment is heavily dependent on the oil exploration/services sector whose operators will be buying a mix of helicopters at the high end of the light commercial segment, including AgustaWestland’s AW139 and Sikorsky’s S-76C++ (Sikorsky’s latest version, the S-76D, will be introduced soon), along with larger models such as the Sikorsky S-92 and Eurocopter EC225 to maintain the ability to mix and match types to fill their needs in the field.

Over the next decade, Forecast International projects production of only 426 medium/heavy commercial rotary-wing aircraft, with a value of approximately $4.5 billion. The total number of medium/heavy machines produced for the civil sector will be dwarfed by the amount produced for military customers, who are expected to take deliveries of thousands of medium/heavy helicopters.

As in the commercial segment, the military market for rotorcraft is best split into light and medium/heavy segments. The light segment is benefiting from the recent or upcoming service entry of a number of new models, primarily from AgustaWestland and Eurocopter.

The U.S. remains the world’s biggest customer for military rotorcraft. The restructuring of U.S. Army aviation that was launched in the wake of the 2004 cancellation of the Boeing/Sikorsky Comanche program allowed additional funding to flow into several projects, including two major light helicopter procurements. These were the Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter (ARH) and the Light Utility Helicopter (LUH). Bell was developing a variant of the Bell 407 light single for the ARH program, but the Pentagon recently killed the ARH-70A after costs escalated. The Army still needs to replace its fleet of aged OH-58 Kiowas, and is looking to buy 512 helicopters.

Although production of these aircraft will be delayed as the ARH program is reworked, toward the second half of the next decade the Army is expected to take delivery of 60 machines per year. Boeing is already angling for the new contract with its AH-6 Little Bird, but European makers can be expected to compete for what will be a lucrative contract.

The LUH program has proceeded far more smoothly. The Army selected a version of the Eurocopter EC145 civil helicopter to be lightly modified into the new UH-72A. This contract award was another in a series of successful attempts by European companies to garner a piece of the lucrative U.S. military market. Eurocopter’s U.S. subsidiary has already begun delivering UH-72As to the Army. The service expects to acquire 345 aircraft, almost all before the decade is out.

AgustaWestland is developing the AW149 as a military version of its twin-engine AW139.Credit: AGUSTAWESTLAND CONCEPT

Most of Eurocopter’s military helicopters are variants of its civil models, though the Tiger combat helicopter is purely military. The Tiger has accumulated more than 205 orders to date. AgustaWestland is in the middle of expanding its military product line, capitalizing on the success of its twin-engine AW139 civil model by developing a military derivative designated the AW149. It is also developing a new iteration of the Lynx multirole helicopter called the Future Lynx. AgustaWestland has revived its AW129 attack helicopter program, which has been selected to fill a Turkish Army requirement.

Following the ARH decision, Bell’s main military helicopters are the UH-1Y and AH-1Z, both of which are being produced for the U.S. Marine Corps. These two H-1 programs began life as remanufacturing efforts, under which existing USMC helicopters would be upgraded to the new standards. But the Marines decided to switch strategies and are funding production of new-build helicopters.

At the heavier side of the market, all-new models include such types as the NH Industries NH90 and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. Dhruv. The military market is also seeing new, more powerful derivatives of helicopters such as the Boeing CH-47F Chinook and Sikorsky UH-60M Black Hawk.

The U.S. Army’s need for helicopters in its wartime operations is acute. Boeing’s CH-47F is being procured by the Army as both a new-build helicopter and a remanufacturing of older Chinooks. The service is also buying the UH-60M, though only as a new-build model. The UH-60M was to be a rebuild effort but later emerged as a new-production program.

The Army is considering tiltrotor technology to fill the Joint Heavy Lift rotorcraft requirement. However, the Marines plan to replace their CH-53E heavy-lift helicopters with the CH-53K, a clean-sheet design that uses the same main rotor/tail rotor configuration. The CH-53K will benefit from new engine technologies, avionics and maintenance systems, but it is a refinement of traditional helicopter design rather than a revolutionary design.

In Europe, the major military helicopter program is the NH90, which is targeted at the same utility transport market as Sikorsky’s UH-60. NH Industries, a consortium comprising Eurocopter, AgustaWestland and Stork Fokker, is sitting on a bulging order book for the all-new helicopter. The company has more than 500 orders, which illustrate an example of using versatility and multirole capability to attract customers. NH Industries has made customization a key feature of the NH90 program, resulting in a multitude of customer-specific variants. Though this has undoubtedly contributed to the NH90’s sales success, the sheer number of versions has also caused some difficulties in terms of certification and meeting delivery deadlines.

Based on forecast unit production, the two top manufacturers in the medium/heavy military class during the next 10 years are expected to be Sikorsky and NH. However, Boeing would supplant NH in the number two position if remanufactured and modified helicopters were included in the forecast. Boeing is expected to turn out hundreds of remanufactured or comprehensively modified Apaches and Chinooks in the next 10 years. Production by Eurocopter of its AS532/EC757 model and by AgustaWestland of the AW101 will trail the market leaders.