The FAA lists 23 active and emerging commercial reusable launch vehicle programs in the U.S. Some of them are well developed and being pursued by companies that have been in the space business for decades; others are being developed by companies that are creating space hardware for the first time. But the one unifying factor is that only a small fraction will make it out of the paper chase and onto the launch pad.

SpaceDev is developing the Dream Chaser to transport up to nine passengers in the suborbital space tourism market.Credit: SPACEDEV CONCEPT

Despite these odds, development of RLVs continues, primarily due to the promise they hold for dramatically reducing the costs associated with space access. However, major technical and financial challenges stand in the way of achieving that goal. An operational RLV must withstand strong loads associated with launch, reentry and landing, and do it over and over again during its years of operation. Assuming an RLV is fielded, it must be replaced after a given number of flights. However, because the RLV model calls for only a small number of vehicles to be manufactured, there will be little optimization of the process without more production. Therefore, replacing an RLV, relatively speaking, is not as cheap as one would assume.

The chances of the first commercial RLV being profitable are unlikely, but if a company can combine a reliable RLV with a sustainable customer base, it’s possible to achieve a positive business outcome. At this time, all indicators point to suborbital space tourism as the most promising near-term application for commercial RLVs, with a number of companies seeking to enter the market as a way to make space pay.

SpaceDev is one such company, which is developing its Dream Chaser to serve this potential market. The Dream Chaser is being designed to transport up to nine passengers, beginning, most likely, in the post-2010 timeframe. The Dream Chaser concept was one of the finalists in the original round of NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services competition, and was resubmitted for the COTS-2 competition.

Another contender is the Benson Space Co. (BSC), which was established by former SpaceDev CEO Jim Benson to develop and operate vehicles to serve the suborbital space tourism market. BSC’s original plan was to operate a suborbital version of the Dream Chaser spacecraft. However, in May 2007, BSC unveiled a new concept, the BSC Spaceship. The vehicle is loosely based on several previous U.S. government aircraft and rocketplanes, including the X-2, X-15 and T-38. BSC believes the BSC Spaceship will be less expensive to construct than previous designs, allowing it to enter commercial service as early as this year; however, Forecast International believes that 2011 is a more likely goal.

Blue Origin is also seeking to make its mark in the space tourism arena, developing the New Shepard reusable launch system, a suborbital, vertical-takeoff, vertical-landing RLV for commercial passenger spaceflights. The vehicle will consist of a capsule, capable of carrying three or more people, mounted on top of a propulsion module. As part of the New Shepard development, Blue Origin plans to build several prototypes that will be tested and flown from its Texas facility. New Shepard expects launches to begin in the 2010 timeframe.

Another company, Rocketplane Global, has been developing its Rocketplane XP suborbital RLV having unveiled a new design in October 2007. The previous design, based on a highly modified Learjet fuselage, was replaced with a larger cabin capable of carrying one pilot and five passengers. The company anticipates beginning flight tests in 2010, contingent on raising sufficient capital to fund vehicle development.

But amid this universe of emerging companies, Virgin Galactic is leading the pack, based on two unmatched milestones: working with a tested and proven design, and managing to attract customers. So far, more than 250 people have made firm reservations to fly on board the VSS, with a reservation requiring a fully refundable deposit of at least $20,000. Virgin has brought in more than $25 million so far from prospective fliers and reports that more than 80,000 people have expressed some level of interest in becoming Virgin Galactic astronauts.

As it stands, Virgin Galactic should have the customer base it needs to succeed with its first five SpaceShipTwo spacecraft. Over time, this customer base should climb as the cost of catching a ride decreases, increasing the number of people who can afford a ticket. Furthermore, the fledgling space branch should benefit from its connection to the Virgin Group, which is involved in so many different aspects of consumer culture.

Virgin is in a good position to take the lead in the suborbital tourist industry. The company should be carrying customers to new heights next year, when it expects to make about 50 flights during its first year of operations.