The world turbine engine market continued to show growth into 2008, with small percentage upticks anticipated through 2017 over predictions made a year ago.

Pratt & Whitney’s PW1000G, designed for use on the next generation of narrowbodies, is being flight-tested on an Airbus A340-600.Credit: AIRBUS

Forecast International expects the industry to produce 109,147 turbofan, turboprop and turboshaft engines in 2008-17, with an overall market value of $272.7 billion. This represents a 3.3% increase in units and 1.4% in value over FI’s 10-year projections of a year ago, with figures for turbofans by far leading the pack. FI estimates 75,215 turbofans will be produced in that span, having a corresponding value of $250.4 billion. This represents a 6.6% increase in units and 19% in value over last year’s 10-year prediction.

These figures are somewhat elastic, however, as the U.S. credit crisis and downward spiral in oil prices since reaching a historical high may be major factors in engine production.

The strong sales of turbofan-powered transports from Airbus and Boeing in 2007 continued into last year. Between these companies, more than 500 aircraft were reported under contract at the Farnborough air show. The majority of these sales were of narrow-body jets, which was good news for CFM and International Aero Engines. The order backlog for A320s and 737s amounts to several thousand aircraft. Still, the U.S. airline industry has come upon tough times once again due to fuel cost, only now it is because of the hundreds of millions of dollars lost through contract hedging after oil prices began to retreat. These factors have U.S. domestic airlines rethinking fleet upgrades.

Engine design for the next-generation narrowbody is split between two camps: Pratt & Whitney’s geared turbofan and CFM’s Leap-X, which has more conventional turbofan architecture. Pratt’s offering, designated PW1000G, has begun flight testing as a demonstrator and will debut on Mitsubishi’s MRJ regional jet as well as Bombardier’s CSeries narrowbody.

Pratt & Whitney says the geared fan technology is scalable, and the company was approached by an unnamed airframer at Farnborough regarding a wide-body application for the PW1000G. General Electric, Rolls-Royce and Snecma are revisiting open-rotor technology as an engine solution for the next-generation narrowbodies. GE has an agreement to test open-rotor designs in one of NASA’s wind tunnels, while Rolls-Royce and Snecma are pursuing the technology through European research funding.

While engine manufacturers are looking at next-generation engine designs, Boeing and Airbus have little incentive to begin development of a next-generation narrowbody. Order backlogs are in the thousands and demand for current aircraft is strong, so follow-ons are not expected to see service until at least 2015.

Both GE and Rolls continue development on their GEnx and Trent 1000 engines for Boeing’s 787. Delays in the 787 program have benefitted the engine manufacturers by allowing them to include improvements into their powerplants’ final builds. The GEnx engine will also power the 747-8, which may enter service nearly simultaneously with the 787. Rolls-Royce is currently the only engine supplier for the Airbus A350XWB program. GE now faces the possibility that the largest A350XWB variant will compete directly with Boeing’s 777-300ER, which is powered exclusively by GE90s. Therefore, GE would be sacrificing 777 engine sales to the A350. The Engine Alliance’s GP7200 has been mentioned as a possible solution for the A350-1000.

In response to developments in the regional aircraft engine market, Russian and Chinese airframers have been using Western-sourced engines and even partnering with the West in an effort to facilitate entry to that market. The partnership between Russian’s NPO Saturn and Snecma has produced the PowerJet SaM146 for Sukhoi’s Superjet 100, while China has purchased GE CF34s for the Avic ARJ21.

Business aircraft continues to be a busy segment as models are being designed to augment or replace existing designs. Fuel prices have not yet put a damper on sales of new turbine aircraft. Meanwhile, aircraft and engine development is underway across all business jet classes. Rolls-Royce is developing two engines: the BR725 for Gulfstream’s new G650 ultra-long-range jet and the RB282 for Dassault’s super mid-size jet. Pratt & Whitney Canada’s new PW810 will power Cessna’s pending Citation Columbus, while Honeywell’s HTF7000 has found two new applications on Embraer’s Legacy 450 and 500 jets.

International orders have replaced fractional ownership as the big driver of engine sales, and the expansion of general aviation into Asia could increase those numbers, limited only by the national infrastructure’s ability to support those aircraft.

In the rotorcraft segment, we expect worldwide production of turboshaft engines to continue its gradual rise up to 2013. Production will then begin to decline. Production increases up to this point have been driven by a robust world economy and the large-scale addition to and/or replacement of helicopters for the world’s militaries. In the 2008-17 period, 20,432 engines with an estimated value of $10.03 billion will be produced.

The U.S. military is in the middle of a helicopter recapitalization program for the Army and Navy. And ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are taking a toll on aircraft due to the mission tempo and decidedly hostile environments.

The U.S. Army has four major helicopter acquisition programs: the AH-64D Apache Block III, UH-60M Black Hawk, CH-47F Chinook and UH-72A Lakota. One key program recently canceled due to program cost overruns was Bell Helicopter’s ARH-70A armed reconnaissance effort powered by Honeywell’s HTS900.

General Electric produces the T700/CT7-8s that power the AH-64 and UH-60 and their variants; these engines continue to constitute the majority of GE’s turboshaft business. The Army has initiated the Advanced Affordable Turbine Engine program to produce a 3,000-shp. turboshaft engine as a drop-in replacement for its T700. The program’s stated goals are a 65% improvement in power/weight ratio and a 25% improvement in specific fuel consumption. Honeywell has teamed with Pratt & Whitney Canada while GE is developing an engine on its own.

The 10-stage compressor of the Rolls-Royce BR725 incorporates five stages of blisks. The engine will power Gulfstream’s new G650 ultra-long-range business jet.Credit: ROLLS-ROYCE

The Navy also has purchased new Seahawks as part of a fleet renewal program. Honeywell produces the T55 engines for Boeing’s CH-47 Chinook. The engine has been in production for more than 40 years, and with continuous updating has been chosen to power the new CH-47F. Turbomeca is producing Arriel 1E2 engines in the U.S. for the Army’s UH-72A, which is essentially a militarized version of the Eurocopter EC145.

The Marine Corps is replacing its CH-53E heavy-lift helicopter with an improved CH-53K, and GE is working on a more powerful engine for it. The GE38-1B will use an architecture similar to that of the T700 series, and will have a rating of more than 7,500 shp.

The Rolls-Royce AE1107C powers the V-22 Osprey tiltrotor for the USMC, and it remains in full-scale production. The USAF and Navy are expected to begin receiving the Ospreys later in the decade. Rolls’ partnership with Turbomeca continues to produce the RTM322 engine for the AgustaWestland AW101 and NH Industries NH90 helicopters.

The civil helicopter segment, though more affected by economic fluctuations than the military segment, continues to show impressive sales and production numbers. Many communities have used federal funds received for the global war on terror to purchase aircraft for their police departments.

Turbomeca’s Arrius and Arriel power the majority of Eurocopter helicopters (some models exclusively) and will see stabilized production after the forecast’s initial peak. These engines occupy the low power range and appear on numerous light single- and twin-engine aircraft. We expect Turbomeca to announce the start of Arriel’s redevelopment program in the next year or so. This will be a significant undertaking, as the Arriel’s power range puts it in direct competition with Pratt & Whitney Canada’s (PWC) PW200 series. The next priority for Turbomeca would be a replacement for the Arrius.

PW200 engines are available on a variety of rotorcraft, primarily from Bell and Agusta, and on a few Eurocopter models. Production standouts include the EC135, Bell 429 and Sikorsky S-76D. The new PW210S on the S-76D will replace the Arriel and is the first application for this engine, which itself is based on the PW600 turbofan’s core.

PWC’s PT6B/C series will see its numbers increase with the help of AgustaWestland’s AW139 and AW149. In addition, Eurocopter’s EC175 and its jointly-developed Z-15 counterpart will be built in China, both powered by the PT6C. The Bell/Agusta BA609 civil tiltrotor is also powered by the PT6C, and is targeting corporate and offshore operators needing higher speeds while retaining VTOL.

Production of Rolls’s Model 250 will continue for several light singles, with Bell’s 206 and 407, and MD Helicopters’ 500 series being the major applications. No less significant is the 250’s appearance on two light turbine trainers—Enstrom’s 480 and Schweizer’s 333.

Rolls is developing its newest engine, the Model 300, for single-engine helicopters requiring up to 300 shp. This powerplant is based on the Model 250’s architecture and has one named application, the Robinson R66.

FI expects the cyclical contracting of the helicopter segment will cause a gradual decrease in engine production, rather than a precipitous drop. Helping to steady the market will be the new aircraft models now in development from Bell, AgustaWestland, Eurocopter and Robinson that will help maintain engine production rates once they begin to enter fleets.

The turboprop engine market continues to climb, with the 2008-17 period expected to show growth of 8.8% in units and 12.8% in value over last year’s projection for the 2007-16 span. The decline in worldwide oil prices and the U.S. credit crisis may have a significant impact on this growth, too.

The fuel price jumps caused airlines to look at fleet composition, and this led to them to rediscover the superior efficiency of turboprops on short routes. Fuel has become the airlines’ biggest cost, so turboprop transport manufacturers such as ATR and Bombardier have substantial backlogs. However, the price of oil has dropped to less than half of its historic high of last July and shows little sign of stabilizing.

Regarding the U.S. credit crisis, the inability for aircraft purchasers to obtain credit could lead to cancellation of a significant number of transactions. Combined with a sluggish world economy, this could have severe ramifications for the aircraft and engine industries. Shrinking military budgets will only exacerbate this problem.

In the business aircraft market, the very light jet was expected to have a significant effect on the light turboprop aircraft segment, but this has not taken place. Turmoil involving a change of leadership at Eclipse Aviation has followed certification issues with its aircraft. While the FAA review has upheld the Eclipse 500’s type certification, confidence in the aircraft (and company) may have been shaken. VLJ programs from Cessna and Embraer are continuing with less drama, but just how big a potential market exists for the VLJ and what the ultimate impact on the turboprop market will be is still unknown. The common thread with these three programs is their selection of PWC’s PW600 series turbofans.

GE’s partnership with Honda Aero Engines will produce the HF120 to power Honda Aircraft’s HondaJet. Most recently, the company has been preparing hardware for its first development engine. Ten engine cores and 10 complete engine demonstrators have been built ahead of the official start of certification testing.

Williams International has been busy with the FJ44-3AP for the enhanced Beechcraft Premier II and the FJ44-4A for the Citation CJ4. Williams produces the engines for Cessna’s complete line of Citation CJs.

General Electric, having been a minor player in the turboprop engine market, has expanded its product portfolio with the acquisition of Walter Engines. While it may not be realistic to assume GE can challenge PWC for market dominance, it does show that GE is serious about the general aviation (GA) retrofit market, and may be considering expanding the Walter product line. New original equipment manufacturer applications may be in GE/Walter’s plans.

Honeywell’s TPE331 turboprop engine line will enjoy a large increase in production thanks to its selection to power the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper UAV. World militaries are finding more uses for unmanned aircraft, and the MQ-9 represents one of the few armed UAVs in service. Aside from this, TPE331 production is relegated to a handful of light transports and agricultural aircraft.

Rolls is also putting new emphasis on general aviation, as its new RR500 turboprop is optimized for the power range common to GA aircraft. It will fit in below the Model 250 in Rolls’s product range and eventually may see power output increases to overlap the 250. The big news with the RR500 is its multi-fuel capability and digital engine controller.

Rolls’s military engines continue to be a big part of the company’s overall business. The AE2100 on the Lockheed Martin C-130J and Alenia Aeronautica/Lockheed Martin C-27J is a mainstay of the turboprop transport segment. Europrop International’s TP400-D6 continues in development for the Airbus Military A400M airlifter. The 11,000-shp. engine program has endured several delays and after installation on a C-130 test aircraft, its first flight is expected early this year.

PWC will build more than 10,000 of the 13,500 turboprop engines forecast. The PT6A appears on almost all GA turboprops, and the PW100 is just as dominant in the regional transport aircraft segment.

Upgrades have enabled key improvements in turboprop performance, but the aircraft still retain short- and soft-field capability as well as overall efficiency, thus preserving their mission. In 2008-17, FI estimates 13,500 turboprop engines will be produced, with a market value of $12.3 billion.