The outlook for the expendable launch vehicle (ELV) market is solid. Revenues for commercial launches have risen steadily since 2005, with Europe garnering the lion’s share of the global market.

Sea Launch Zenit-3SL launches Galaxy 19, part of Intelsat’s North American constellation of telecom satellites, on Sept. 24. Galaxy 19 provides video and other ­services.Credit: SEA LAUNCH

According to the FAA, revenues from the 23 commercial launch events in 2007 amounted to an estimated $1.55 billion, an increase of about $125 million from the commercial revenues achieved in 2006. U.S. commercial launch revenues for 2007 were estimated to be $150 million, and Russian revenues were $477 million. Balancing out the market, European revenues were about $840 million and the multinational consortium Sea Launch had an estimated $70 million in commercial launch revenue. India’s one commercial mission brought in $11 million.

Launch providers from the U.S., Russia, Europe, China, Japan, India and Israel plus the multinational Sea Launch Co. conducted a total of 68 launch events in 2007, 23 of which were commercial. U.S.-built vehicles carried out three flights in 2007, accounting for 13% of the global market. Russia led with 12 commercial launches, capturing 52% of the market, its highest share ever. Europe conducted a record high six Ariane 5 commercial launches in 2007, for a 26% share. The year 2007 marked India’s first commercial launch and a single liftoff for Sea Launch.

Governments continue to be the prevailing customers, accounting for 74% of the total payloads lofted globally in 2007, up from 66% in 2006. Between 2003 and 2007, there was an average of 61 total orbital launches per year worldwide. During the 2003-07 period, Russia and the U.S. conducted the most orbital launches worldwide, followed by China and Europe. There were 306 orbital launches during the period.

Ninety-four commercial orbital launches took place, slowly increasing to 23 in 2007 from 15 in 2004. The U.S. carried out 17 commercial launches; Russia and Europe had 39 and 21, respectively. Sea Launch performed 16 flights, while India recently performed its first commercial mission. No commercially competed launches were conducted from China. The demand for commercial non-GEO (geosynchronous Earth orbit) launches, which reached its apogee in the late 1990s, lagged during the four years prior to 2007. But in 2007, there was a substantial rebound in this demand, with more commercial launches to non-GEO than to GEO.

The spike in commercial launches to orbits other than GEO was fueled by two factors: separate demand in two distinct markets—remote-sensing, which usually drives non-GEO launches, and communications. First, there was high demand in 2007 for commercial launches of both commercial and government low-Earth-orbit (LEO) remote-sensing satellites. Eight flights were dedicated to remote-sensing primary payloads. Second, there were two LEO communication constellation launches for eight Globalstar satellites.

A symbiotic relationship between the launch vehicle and satellite industries means that neither market can flourish without the other, as the launch vehicle industry requires a steady stream of payloads, and both satellite manufacturers and operators require consistent access to these vehicles. Looking at the satellite market and how it will impact launch vehicles is therefore critical. As for the future, customers on the commercial and military side have an impressive catalogue of spacecraft requiring launch services over the next 10 years.

A near-term trend of heavier GEO satellites bodes well for GEO launch providers. Some growth in launch demand for LEO communications satellites is expected, as existing LEO constellations such as Globalstar and Orbcomm are either replenished or replaced with next-generation systems. In the near term, science satellites will continue to account for about half of the demand for non-GEO launch services.

In the U.S., the military satellite market is vigorous as it meets the needs of transformational efforts underway. There seems to be a never-ending list of programs that are planning launches throughout the next decade. United Launch Alliance—a tie-up of Lockheed Martin and Boeing’s launch operations—will be the direct beneficiary of the full military satellite manifest in the U.S.

While the level of military satellite production in Europe will remain in sharp contrast to that of the U.S., there will still be plenty of contracts for the Ariane 5 and the upcoming Vega. ELV providers in Europe and Russia also are ramping up production for a rebound in the commercial satellite industry. Increased output of Soyuzes and Ariane 5s has been widely reported.

The following is a closer look at the major launch ­providers:

Planned Orbital Sciences Corp. Taurus 2 sits on the pad at Wallops Island, Va. OSC envisions the medium-class launch vehicle carrying Delta II-class payloads by combining elements of existing Pegasus, Taurus and Minotaur launchers with other hardware.Credit: ORBITAL SCIENCES CONCEPT

•Arianespace. The company has indicated a launch expectation of eight Ariane 5 missions this year, with most, if not all, commercial missions expected to be dual-manifested. One launch per year will likely be of a noncommercial payload. One commercial mission will have to fly on a single-manifested mission due to schedule, manifesting or customer choice, meaning that six dual-manifested missions can be expected each year in the near term.

The Ariane 5 ECA is a proven vehicle, and its capability of launching two satellites allows Arianespace to move away from lofting one satellite at a time, which is far less lucrative. Fulfillment of a production order for 35 Ariane 5 ECAs placed in 2007 will ensure access to the European vehicle from 2010-15.

•International Launch Services. In October 2006, Lockheed Martin finalized the sale of its interests in ILS, transferring the marketing and operation of future commercial Atlas vehicle launches to Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services.

In May 2008, Khrunichev acquired the shares of ILS owned by majority shareholder Space Transport Inc. ILS holds the exclusive worldwide rights to market and sell commercial launch services on the Khrunichev-built Proton launch vehicle, as well as the Angara vehicle under development.

The Russian supply-chain concerns that are impacting some launch operations are not affecting ILS. The company started with Khrunichev about 15 years ago, and the Proton has the full backing of the Russian government. In May 2008, ILS reported a backlog of 22 orders totaling nearly $2 billion.

•Orbital Sciences Corp. OSC provides the Minotaur, Pegasus and Taurus vehicles for orbital launch. In early December 2007, OSC provided an initial glimpse of its plans for a new medium-class vehicle named Taurus 2.

The Taurus 2 is a medium-lift vehicle being developed to support efforts to provide cargo resupply services to the International Space Station, among other applications. OSC expects the Taurus 2 to begin launching in late 2010 from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport at Wallops Island, Va. Orbital will spend $45 million to develop the necessary launch facilities for the Taurus 2.

•Sea Launch. This company offers the Zenit-3SL for commercial flights to GEO. The Zenit-3SL is launched from the mobile Odyssey Launch Platform along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. Boeing is the majority shareholder of Sea Launch. Other partners include S.P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corp. Energia of Russia, Aker ASA of Norway and SDO Yuzhnoye/NPO Yuzhmash of Ukraine.

Recent increases in material and labor costs associated with Sea Launch’s Ukrainian and Russian launch contractors could cause flight delays. Although Sea Launch reportedly renegotiated new contracts with RSC Energia, NPO Energomash and NPO Yuzhnoye to resolve these issues, Sea and Land Launch operations were both affected to some degree last year by the limited availability of rocket hardware. Sea Launch does have a full launch docket through this year and, pending resolution of supply issues, the outlook for Sea Launch is good.

•SpaceX. If the Falcon continues to prove successful from a flight standpoint, and the pricing stays at suggested levels, SpaceX could put serious pressure on the established players. The Falcon 1 will mainly compete against Orbital Sciences’ Pegasus and Taurus rockets for the half-ton-to-LEO market.

Meanwhile, the Falcon 9 will target the extended ELV class in the U.S.; again, if the price projections are accurate, the Falcon 9 should win handily. In the long term, SpaceX hopes to conduct about six Falcon missions annually, starting early in the next decade. Forecast International agrees with this assessment. U.S. government orders alone should bring a substantial portion of those flights to the Falcons.

•United Launch Alliance. ULA was formed in December 2006. The company conducts launches for the noncommercial U.S. government launch market. Boeing-heritage Delta vehicles and Lockheed Martin-heritage Atlases are manufactured and operated by ULA.

In 2007, ULA conducted 10 U.S. government noncommercial launches. Five Delta IIs launched the following payloads: five Themis satellites, Phoenix and Dawn for NASA, and Navstar GPS 2RM-4 and 2RM-5 for the Defense Dept. A ULA Delta IV Heavy placed the final Defense Support Program satellite, DSP 23, into GEO from Cape Canaveral in November. ULA also launched four Atlas Vs during 2007, all for the Defense Dept. In March, six technology development satellites were launched from Cape Canaveral on an Atlas V 401. Later in the year, Atlas Vs orbited two satellites for the National Reconnaissance Office and the first wideband global communications satellite. ULA will continue to lean on strong government demand and launch 4-6 spacecraft annually in the near term.