Apparently, it's getting easier to be green -- Kermit the Frog's lament notwithstanding.

Whether or not you agree that the world has passed the point where there's less crude oil in the ground than we've extracted -- i.e., so-called "peak oil" -- or that global warming accelerated by the burning of fossil fuels over the last 150 years is a fact, the "green revolution" has begun. Skeptics may abound, but when the petroleum industry itself begins talking about the need to develop alternative fuels to get us through the 21st century and lower carbon emissions, you have to take notice.

This summer the National Petroleum Council released a landmark report commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy laying out strategies to address declining crude oil reserves. Among those recommendations was the expansion and diversification of energy production from sources other than fossil-based stocks, especially renewable sources like biomass. (Additionally, the report also called for "moderating" the decline of U.S. domestic oil and gas production and more investment in R&D for technologies to mitigate the migration of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.) Titled "Facing the Hard Truths About Energy" and presided over by former Exxon Chairman and CEO Lee Raymond, the 422-page draft report drew on suggestions from more than 1,000 respondents around the world as well as governments of 19 countries, including Saudi Arabia.

The debatable issues of peak oil and global warming aside, it's become obvious that with the economies of China and India in the ascendancy, competition for remaining crude oil reserves will be keen for the foreseeable future. According to the International Energy Agency, China will lead the world in "demand growth" for jet fuel through 2012, reaching 5.6 percent, thanks to the communist nation's burgeoning wealth, which in turn is stimulating demand for more air travel.

Meanwhile, total worldwide demand for Jet-A is forecasted to reach 7.6 million barrels per day during the same period, compared to 6.8 million barrels in 2007, a demand-growth rate of 2.3 percent. In North America, demand growth is expected to remain relatively flat at 0.6 percent; however, the IEA predicts that the Jet-A supply will remain tight through 2010 without additional refining capacity, which could strain U.S. supplies. (Refineries knocked offline by Hurricane Katrina are still being rebuilt.)

Looking further out, the National Petroleum Council study concludes that global demand for energy -- all of it, including jet fuel -- will grow by as much as 60 percent by 2030. (Coincidentally, the same week in July the report was released the price of crude oil shot up to $76 a barrel.)

Growing Our Fuel

So, anticipating the competition that will ensue for the planet's remaining petroleum reserves, a strong and logical argument can be made for finding alternative fuel sources to ensure both "oil security" -- that is, an uninterrupted energy supply -- and unhook nations like the United States from dependence on oil imported from foreign sources (read: the Middle East and other unstable regions of the world). Many analysts believe that "oil politics" will characterize the century, leading to friction and even open conflict among nations (e.g., much in the fashion of Russia using distribution of its huge natural gas reserves as a political tool to dominate its western neighbors), another good reason to step up research into fuels that can be derived from renewable sources.

And thus the focus on "biofuel" that can be grown and replenished, as opposed to recovered from a diminishing resource. After fueling 100 years of powered flight with petroleum, it may be hard to accept the concept of running a 0.85 Mach-capable jet on an energy source derived from soy beans, palm oil, switch grass or a desert weed called jatropha, but organizations as serious as the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), U.S. Air Force, FAA and NASA are devoting considerable funding to support R&D precisely toward that end.

In addition, serious research is also being devoted to coal liquefaction using the Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) synthesizing process developed in Germany during the 1920s and used by that nation and Japan, both with little or no indigenous petroleum reserves, in World War II to make so-called "syngas." (Collectively, F-T synthesized products are referred to as "synfuels.") Since none of the fuels derived from these diverse sources is a magic bullet in and of itself, it's possible that we'll see a variety of them perfected to supplement fossil fuels. Different fuels may be used in different regions of the world, depending on what local resources are available: oil, coal or biostock.