Deliveries of fighter/attack aircraft will fall off through the rest of this decade but will rebound around 2011 and gather momentum as the world's major air armed forces initiate a new reequipment cycle.

In the near term, "last call" orders for legacy types such as the Lockheed Martin F-16, Boeing F-15 and Dassault Mirage 2000 are buoying output, while the new Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon are rolling off the lines and the F/A-22 and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) edge closer to production.

The transition to the new-generation aircraft has not been smooth. Virtually all of the new models are having painful gestation periods, the one notable exception being the U.S. Navy/Marine Corps Boeing F/A-18E/F, and even that aircraft suffered its share of teething pains and subsequent criticism. In the U.S., Lockheed Martin's F/A-22 and F-35 have come under intense scrutiny, and the originally planned inventory objective of each has been significantly scaled down.

The F-22 was initially conceived as an air superiority fighter to counter the former Soviet Union's MiG and Sukhoi combat aircraft during the Cold War, and has drawn fire from critics who have described it as a gold-plated legacy system. In 2002, USAF redesignated the aircraft F/A-22 to emphasize its air-to-ground capabilities, although its critics called this a desperate attempt to justify the program. USAF also is studying a Lockheed Martin design for a derivative FB-22 as one of several interim bomber candidates, reported to be favored by outgoing Air Force Secretary James Roche over designs submitted by Boeing and Northrop Grumman. It remains to be seen whether the new-found versatility of the baseline design will enhance the embattled fighter's appeal in Congress.

The program has fallen behind schedule and is seriously over-budget. In mid-2004, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) claimed that developments costs had risen to $28.7 billion from $19.5 billion since 1991, nearly a 50% increase. Since its inception, the F/A-22's inventory objective has been progressively scaled down to 277 from 700-plus units. However, in early 2004, Roche said he saw "no major obstacles" to the program, adding that "this is not a Cold War system today."

The aircraft's initial operational testing and evaluation was completed in September 2004, and according to Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. John Jumper, it proceeded "with fewer lumps and bumps than I ever thought it would. The reliability and the other things that we . . . weren't sure we were out of the woods on really turned out much better than we thought." He added that the program was on track to achieve initial operational capability (IOC) in December 2005.

As for the F-35, this multirole type has been criticized for a weight problem that is of particular concern for the F-35B short-takeoff/vertical-landing (Stovl) version. In September 2004, however, Lockheed Martin announced that it had cut 2,700 lb. from the F-35B and that the aircraft was back on track to meet or exceed all its performance requirements.

The JSF will also be built in the F-35A conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) and F-35C carrier-based attack (CV) configurations. In late 2004, USAF announced plans to procure "hundreds" of the Stovl "B" variant, which could operate from forward bases or unimproved airfields closer to the front lines. USAF originally had intended to acquire 1,763 F-35As. As the F-35B carries a higher price tag than the "A" model, the total number of F-35s to be procured by USAF likely will be reduced. This might occur in any case should unmanned aerial vehicle technology progress sufficiently to make those aircraft competitive with next-generation manned fighters.

Lockheed Martin has conceded that incorporating the design refinements into the F-35B Stovl version will result in the first flight of the F-35A being slipped from the autumn of 2005 until August 2006. Low-rate initial production, originally set to begin in 2006, has been pushed back to 2007.

USAF has been quietly working on a contingency plan, originally as an interim move, should deliveries of the new fighters suffer further delays; but the plan may be a fallback measure should the F-35 or F/A-22 (or both) suffer additional cuts. Boeing has reported that USAF sought options in late 2003, seemingly confirming reports that the service was looking at a proposal to procure 144 additional two-seat F-15Es. Lockheed Martin, with an F-16 order backlog extending through 2008, has also offered USAF several options "to fill any force structure," according to a senior company official. Assuming further cutbacks or termination of the F/A-22, one option USAF could consider is increasing its planned F-35 buys.