The world trainer market remains stagnant, with few signs of recovery. This is being caused by a unique combination of unfortunate circumstances--low demand and oversupply. The demand problem shows few signs of improving, but at least the glut of new trainers is subsiding.

From the supply side, there is an overabundance of trainers and light attack aircraft, mostly because these are the easiest military aircraft to design and build. There are very few barriers to trainer market entry. The result has been a proliferation of indigenous trainer designs, with small production runs, high unit costs, few export orders and few industrial skills learned.

The situation is little better on the demand side of the equation. Trainer demand has dropped off because defense forces have been cut worldwide and because pilot training requirements have changed. Information and systems management now takes precedence over aerial flight skills, and the former can best be honed in ground-based simulators. But the biggest factor suppressing trainer demand has been shared trainer fleets.

National trainer fleets generally are unnecessary for national security, and the whole process is easily outsourced, saving money for new fighter jets and other pressing requirements. Singapore, for example, uses primary trainers based in Australia (soon to be run by a private contractor) and advanced trainers at NATO Flight Training in Canada (NFTC). Britain is sending pilots to NFTC, and starting its own privately run Military Flying Training System. MFTS will also be available for foreign pilots. Even Israel, with its security-conscious military, is planning to outsource basic training requirements to the private sector.

The best example of the shared fleet trend is NFTC. Run by Bombardier, NFTC trains pilots from different countries with a single fleet of BAE Hawk 100s and Raytheon T-6s leased to clients on a "power-by-the-hour" basis. In addition to the U.K. and Singapore, Canada, Italy, Hungary and Denmark are customers.

While European nations have expressed interest in a similar program for years, it was only in December 2001 that they agreed to create an Advanced European Jet Pilot Training (AEJPT) program. But funding for this effort is highly uncertain, despite big plans to couple it with creation of a new Eurotrainer aircraft. In the interim, European nations will continue to coast using legacy fleets and other training services (like NFTC). Because of the continuing soft demand, the glut of new trainer programs seems to be drying up. And, as fewer new programs enter the market, some existing ones will do well. This particularly applies to the BAE Systems Hawk, Raytheon's T-6, Pilatus' PC-9/21 series and Embraer's Tucano series.

Two trainer programs that are unlikely to have much of an effect on the global market, though, are South Korea's KT-1 and A/T-50. Designed primarily for indigenous use, the aircraft will have limited opportunity to prove itself outside South Korea.

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