Strong endorsement by the U.S. Defense Dept. is bolstering Lockheed Martin's multinational F-35 after it achieved a critical flight milestone last week. However, the company is facing a loss of support for its F-22 after the program's top two champions were ousted from the Pentagon's inner circle.

Pentagon acquisition czar John Young, known for setting rigorous technical maturity milestones for weapons programs, took the unusual step of releasing a statement only hours after the June 11 first flight of the short takeoff and vertical landing (Stovl) F-35B - the first production-representative Joint Strike Fighter. "The JSF program is ahead of similar programs in terms of quality, software, testing and manufacturing readiness," he said, praising "the maturity and progress being made on JSF."

Initial flying is in conventional take-off and landing mode, and Stovl testing is still months away, but the first flight of the F-35B clears the way for release of $1.3 billion in funding to produce the first six aircraft for the Marine Corps. The contract should be awarded after Young has been briefed on the resolution of blade failure issues with the Stovl version of Pratt & Whitney's F135 engine.

Despite the engine problems, the flight took place within weeks of the late May target set in August 2006, says Marine Corps Brig. Gen. David Heinz, deputy JSF program director. The much-anticipated milestone is likely to shore up international support for the JSF. Japan, worried about the impending shutdown of the F-22 line, is turning its attention to the F-35 (see p. 55).

With the surprise resignations of Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne and Chief of Staff Gen. T. Michael Moseley this month, the stealthy Raptor, in contrast, appears to be without a champion in the Pentagon's upper ranks; without new funding, production will begin winding down. The ousted USAF leaders clashed with Defense Secretary Robert Gates over their dogmatic support for the F-22.

Lockheed Martin says it needs long-lead funding for an additional lot of F-22s by November to avoid having to begin shutting down the supply chain, but the nominated Air Force secretary and chief of staff are not expected to step in with support for the Raptor.

"The leadership change will prevent the Air Force from pursuing additional F-22s in Congress for the remainder of the Bush presidency," says Loren Thompson, a defense analyst and consultant with the Washington-based Lexington Institute. "That diminishes the outlook for the program because neither of the major [presidential] candidates likely to succeed Bush is favorably disposed to the Raptor."

The timeline for Boeing, which makes the wing and aft fuselage, is even tighter. "Advanced procurement for Lot 10 must be added to the FY [Fiscal Year] 2009 defense budget this fall to avoid the initiation of shutdown in October 2008," says Bob Jenkins, Boeing's F-22 business strategy director. Although Lockheed and Boeing are funded to produce aircraft until 2011, the long-lead suppliers will deliver their last parts as early as mid-2009.

The termination threat comes as the program is stabilizing, says Larry Lawson, Lockheed Martin vice president and F-22 program manager. Aircraft are being delivered with zero defects, a month ahead of schedule, and the mission-capable rate of the fleet is running at a "pretty good" 70%, he says.

The F-22 has faced termination since February, when the Defense Dept.'s Fiscal 2009 budget request omitted funding for the fighter, leaving its fate to the next administration. Both defense authorization committees proposed plus-ups in order to procure some long-lead items, but a final decision awaits a negotiation between the House and Senate.

The U.S. Air Force added to the pressure for funding by sending a letter to the Senate on June 3 "outlining the potential impact to the F-22 if the decision is not made by Oct. 31," says Jenkins. Although exact figures are not being disclosed, Jenkins says "a gap of a year and you're talking close to a $1-billion impact." Restarting production, and covering supply-chain expenditures, would raise the unit cost of future aircraft.

The F-22 production line in October enters the final 12 months of a three-year, 60-aircraft buy. In total, USAF has ordered 187 aircraft, of which 119 have been delivered. Two arrived last week at Holloman AFB, N.M., the third of four planned F-22 bases. But the "combat need" identified by USAF remains 381 aircraft, while any future export hopes for the F-22 will only remain alive if costs are amortized across production beyond Lot 10, says Jenkins. Additionally, Congress would have to lift a restriction on its export.

Boeing and Lockheed Martin are considering using company funds to keep the supply chain alive, but "there's no commitment to do that," Jenkins says. Continuing lean production initiatives have, meanwhile, seen a 10% reduction in cost "lot-over-lot on the first eight production lots," he says, despite a production rate drop from 24 aircraft in Lot 6 to 20 in Lot 7.