Some aerospace contractors have dubbed Apr. 6 "Black Monday," because of Defense Secretary Robert Gates's announcement that he plans to scale back or terminate dozens of Pentagon programs in order to reshape the U.S. military.

Nevertheless, the outlook for Pentagon aviation may not be as dark as it seems: Programs are being killed and some jobs will be lost, but Congress won't approve the plan without a fight.

Although contractors are bemoaning the cuts that Gates has handed down, his strategy includes a 4% increase to the Fiscal 2010 budget - the change is in priorities. Gates is planning to rein in war supplemental funding and provide a more complete baseline spending road map. While the total projection goes up, the allocation for procurement is feeling the squeeze.

Fixed-wing aviation will see line closures soon, and the helicopter market is being hit hard with the termination of the Air Force Combat Search-and-Rescue (CSAR-X) system and the Navy-led Marine One efforts.

But, according to Gates and Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, there may be a silver lining. They say contractors can expect the Pentagon to be a more stable buyer and reduce the fitful changes in funding and requirements.

The fact that Gates's announcement did not prompt a large-scale selloff of defense stocks on Wall Street indicates that the proposal is not viewed as the dark harbinger that was once feared. "Whether you agree or disagree with the individual decisions . . . of what he is going to put forward, he made a lot of tough decisions," says one industry analyst. "At least now there is some certainty on the direction being taken by the administration, and we can adjust the industry approach accordingly."

Aviation took less of a direct hit than shipbuilding and ground vehicles for the Army and Marines. The Navy is losing one aircraft carrier, and delays are proposed for the next-generation cruiser and amphibious ships. Also, Gates is proposing a termination to the $87-billion ground-vehicle plan under the Army's Future Combat Systems program.

Overall, Boeing appears to be the hardest hit with the changes to missile defense, CSAR and the Army vehicle cancellations. Lockheed Martin's focus will be on the F-22 and VH-71 terminations, but the acceleration in F-35 is adding much needed clout to that effort. And Northrop Grumman's largest impact is in the shipbuilding side, though not a net loss.

The high-profile kills in fixed-wing aviation include halting production of the C-17 and F-22 as well as termination of the Lockheed Martin/AgustaWestland VH-71 presidential helicopter, CSAR-X and the Orbital Boost Vehicle (OBV) - an Orbital Sciences Corp. interceptor linked to the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense missile shield.

The most profound impact on aviation could be realized by projects that did not get a chance to enter production, such as the sidelined duel that was to take place between Northrop Grumman and a Boeing/Lockheed Martin team over the next-generation bomber. This delay could be more worrisome to Boeing; St. Louis had hoped bomber work would provide jobs as the company's fighter programs wind down.