Engine Upturn Remains Elusive

The expected recovery in the commercial turbine market has been taking on the characteristics of the Loch Ness Monster: much talked about and intensely argued, but it has eluded all who have come expecting to find proof of its existence.

The slippery recovery is now not expected to rear its head until late 2006. One can only hope that market prognosticators have moved the expected date for a turnaround too far out in fear of having to adjust forecasts down one more time.

As was the case last year, military sales have been downright buoyant during the slump and have helped the sector weather what could have been a truly nasty downturn.

FEELING PRESSURE

Large engines have been taking the heavy brunt of the downturn. The weak U.S. recovery, the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Asia and high fuel prices have all conspired to pressure the commercial transport market.

Low-cost carriers continue to be immune to the tribulations of the market as the airliner takes its rightful place as the Greyhound bus of the sky. CFM International and its only competitor with a pulse, International Aero Engines, have been the lone commercial turbine producers who have seen continued strong sales over the last year. The two joint venture companies are roughly splitting the market evenly between them for Airbus A320 variants. The CFM56 is the sole powerplant on the Boeing 737 family.

There is some excitement in the market as General Electric, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce all position themselves for the lone "uncommitted" new airliner to be launched in this decade: the Boeing 7E7 Dreamliner. GE is planning to scale down the GE90 and include some innovations from the TECH56 program for its offering. Rolls will also scale down a large turbine, in this case the Trent 900, and include modifications to achieve Boeing's desired benchmarks.

Pratt is the only manufacturer offering a completely new turbine. Although the company is emphasizing a coming together of proven technologies (PW4000, PW6000, F119), the effort seems to be a bit of a gamble. Boeing is expected to pick one or two turbines as standard equipment and unless Pratt offers a product with demonstrably better performance, the other two suitors seem better positioned for selection.

Boeing is astutely asking for specifications on the 7E7 engine that will make it incompatible with competing Airbus offerings. This move will effectively delay an A330 variant with "dream-like" performance.