Airbus' sales of A380 mega-transports are ahead of predictions, but the company soon could be confronted with a Boeing 747 Advanced while the proposed 7E7 Dreamliner is rapidly moving toward launch and is increasingly expected to receive the go-ahead by next year.

Although the economic downturn, post-Sept. 11, 2001, damages and the severe acute respiratory syndrome continue to seriously affect the airline industry and the commercial transport market, a touch of optimism emerged here last week. Said Alan Mulally, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes: "Our best estimates are that we will be back to 2000 levels by the end of this year and return to more deliveries by 2005." He added that after taking into account deferrals and cancellations, Boeing plans to deliver 280 aircraft this year and 275-300 in 2004.

Airbus Chief Executive Noel Forgeard echoed similar short-term predictions by confirming his company's plan to deliver 300 aircraft in 2003, "an achievement in the current context." He warned that the next three years will continue to be difficult and that Airbus' strategy of caution will not be revised despite this year's vigorous sales start. However, Airbus expects to secure orders for no more than 250 aircraft in 2003.

SINCE JAN. 1, the European manufacturer has secured an impressive 222 firm orders for commercial transports and has celebrated the long delayed go-ahead of the A400M airlifter, a milestone in Airbus' plan to acquire more business in the global defense market.

Two Middle East carriers, Emirates and Qatar Airways, have largely dominated Airbus' first half with major contracts. Dubai-based Emirates last week signed a $12.5-billion order for an additional 21 A380s, 18 A340-600 Higher Gross Weight aircraft and two ultra long-range A340-500s. In addition, Emirates will lease two more A380s from the International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC).