Military fixed-wing trainer deliveries will rise steadily in the next 10 years, totaling 2,238 shipments worth $17.5 billion from 2004 to 2013, according to a new global market overview from Forecast International (FI).

"In light of the tactical aircraft re-equipment cycle now under way by many major air forces, the need to address some long-postponed trainer requirements is receiving new impetus," said FI senior aerospace analyst Bill Dane.

According to Dane, the next generation of advanced jet trainers will be products of joint ventures.

"The T-38 and Hawk replacements will be designed for pilots who must transition to combat jets with performance never before seen. No single company could afford to develop such a trainer," he said.

The U.S. Navy/Air Force Raytheon T-6A will have the most significant trainer sales during the next 10 years, with 693 deliveries projected for the U.S. services and export customers. No other type comes close, the report says. The EADS Mako is expected to have 260 shipments, and the BAE Systems Hawk, another advanced jet trainer, is expected to have about 250.

EADS Mako, the newest market entry, still is in the development stage. It likely will win the Advanced European Jet Pilot Training (AEJPT) competition, beating out Aermacchi's M-346, the report says. The AEJPT contest is aimed at developing a common trainer type for 12 nations, which have been conducting joint studies intermittently for about 10 years. About 150 aircraft would be required if the AEJPT program goes forward.

The Korea Aerospace Industries' KT-1 turboprop, and the same company's T/A-50, jet are being marketed outside Korea, so far without success, FI said. The Sino-Pakistani HAIG/PAC team is another fairly recent newcomer and is developing the K-8 jet trainer for both nations' air forces.

Among the former Warsaw Pact manufacturers, Yakovlev and MiG report modest orders from the Russian air force, with the MiG-AT also expected to be built in Poland to fill a trainer requirement of that country.

The Czech Republic's Aero Vodochody has yet to post its first export sale (DAILY, Feb. 24) and its future appears far from bright, Dane said.