Chinese airlines show little sign of heeding the civil aviation administration’s call for them to cancel or defer 2009 aircraft deliveries.

The industry seems more likely to trim capacity by retiring old aircraft and by declining to renew leases. Both measures were also part of a policy that the administration issued this month to reign in overcapacity in the industry, but since both are only normal airline responses to weak demand, it seems that the high-profile announcement will have little influence on fleet sizes.

Separately, the government has made another move to address China Eastern’s continuing disastrous financial performance by reshuffling the struggling airline’s chairman and president, replacing them with executives from rivals China Southern and Air China.

Air China says categorically that it will not alter its plan to take delivery of 23 Boeing 737s and Airbus A320s in 2009. The orders were made cautiously on the assumption that domestic demand would grow, and the airline still thinks it will, says board secretary Rao Xinyu.

Market leader China Southern points out that, while it hasn’t finally decided how to manage its fleet next year, it has ways to manage aircraft numbers other than deferrals and cancelations—implicitly, retirements and non-renewals of leases.

China Eastern says it is still looking at its fleet options.

The civil aviation administration did not order airlines to cancel or defer new aircraft, and their evident lack of interest in doing so reflects the commercial difficulty that they, like airlines in any other country, have only limited flexibility to adjust deliveries within the next 12 months.

Boeing and Airbus both say they’ve had no cancellations. But it is likely too soon after the policy announcement.

Some investors are speculating on a takeover of China Eastern after the replacement of Chairman Li Fenghua and president Cao Jianxiong by Liu Shaoyong and Ma Xulun, former executives of China Southern and Air China, respectively. Cao will become vice chairman of Air China parent CNAC.

China Eastern could be absorbed by either of its big brothers, or broken up and shared between the two, or it could be merged with hometown rival Shanghai Airlines. Either way, the state of China Eastern’s financial and management performance makes clear that some significant state-directed reorganization of the airline must be coming, subject to the proviso that there are no significant job losses.

Shanghai Airlines says it is asking the Shanghai city government, its major shareholder, for a cash injection. China Eastern and China Southern have each been given 3 billion yuan ($480 million) in new capital in the past two weeks, but Shanghai Airlines Chairman Zhou Chi says his company is not seeking nearly so much.

The fourth-ranked Chinese carrier, Hainan Airlines, has asked its provincial-government parent to top up its capital.

Budget carrier Okay Airways has stopped flying under government orders prompted by a dispute between shareholders, but associated carrier Juneyao says Okay may yet fly again. Okay’s air operator’s certificate is valuable, because the civil administration is refusing to accept applications for new airlines.

File photo of Air China 737-800 in Beijing 2008 Olympics livery: Boeing