A severe shortage in aircraft delivery financing is threatening to leave Airbus and Boeing stranded with perhaps 200 "white-tail" aircraft they can't place with customers.

The aircraft financing crisis comes on top of fears by analysts that 20-30% of Airbus and Boeing backlogs may be at risk as airlines go bust. Exacerbating the situation is that the leasing sector - which both aircraft makers were hoping would help them ride through the storm - also has entered a period of upheaval and restructuring.

Next year could see a shortfall of $10-20 billion in available funding, warns Christian McCormick, managing director for the fourth-largest aircraft financing bank, Natixis Transport Finance. For airlines that haven't secured funds for deliveries this year, the crisis could already be at hand as many banks are making no further obligations through year-end.

In the past year, the number of financial institutions working with the airline industry has been halved, notes Brian Pearce, the International Air Transport Assn.'s chief economist. "This is becoming a problem for airlines and manufacturers."

Airlines need to pay for around $65 billion in aircraft deliveries next year - which means that up to one third of those could face serious monetary difficulties. Consultancy Ascend puts the number of "white tails" Airbus and Boeing could be holding at 200 next year if the financing situation does not improve.

Access to capital "is a very real issue right now," says Virgin Atlantic CEO Steve Ridgway, although the airline doesn't need money for big capital expenditures right now. "It is too early to say how and when that market will come back," he says, adding, "Right now it is bets off in a whole load of markets."

Airbus and Boeing have said they will make greater efforts in customer finance, having largely cleared their books from the financial obligations taken on during past crises. McCormick says both big aircraft makers will have to provide much more than the $2 billion each has indicated will be made available. The real figure could be double that or more, he suggests.

The smaller aircraft makers are also taking hits. "The financing environment is deteriorating" and manufacturers have to take on a bigger role in providing capital, says Mario Formica, vice president for sales studies and marketing at turboprop-maker ATR. That's drawing out negotiations for deals.

When airlines started to show financial weakness owing to high fuel prices, Airbus and Boeing officials indicated they would try to place more aircraft with leasing companies, which were widely seen as more secure. But that was before the effects of the global financial crisis became evident, which has deeply shaken the leasing sector, too. Lease rates are falling because of the airlines problems and the cost of capital is rising because of the financial turmoil.

"Eventual declines [in lease rates] may emerge closer to 30% based on precedent and potential for widespread global airline defaults in 2009," JPMorgan analysts write in a recent market study. That trend is confirmed by Klaus Heinemann, CEO of AerCap, who says that even relatively recent Airbus A320s and Boeing 737 NGs have experienced a 10% drop in lease rates, with older models much exceeding that figure and aircraft such as MD-80s "no longer placeable." AerCap is the world's eighth-largest lessor by fleet size.