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The World Trade Organization is poised to issue its first formal ruling in the Airbus versus Boeing dispute over aircraft development subsidies, but that has not stopped the U.K. from releasing launch aid for the A350XWB, Airbus’s newest development project.
The U.K. is extending £340 million ($560.7 million) in loans to the European aircraft manufacturer to support development of the twin-widebody, on top of £60 million being allocated to GKN, a risk-sharing partner on the project. Other core Airbus countries are vowing to follow: France, the largest workshare beneficiary, is offering €1.4 billion ($1.9 billion); Germany, €1.1 billion; and Spain pledges aid, though no amount is set.
The U.K. portion is far below what industry initially hoped to secure, although it is roughly in line with the expectations of recent months. Ian Gooden, CEO of the Society of British Aerospace Companies, applauded the government’s decision and noted that the A350XWB “is an extremely important program for the future of the U.K. aerospace industry, and this investment secures vital work across the sector. More than 5,000 jobs are created or supported across the U.K. supply chain” by the endeavor.
Airbus initially worked to avoid a trade fight. But efforts to broker a deal have been stalled for some time, and with A350 development expenditures beginning in earnest—tooling is being ordered and construction of the final assembly hall has also started—securing the money has become an increasing priority.
The aircraft maker and partner governments also explored new funding support in lieu of traditional loans, in part to avoid inflaming trade tensions while the WTO adjudicated the subsidies now being provided. But in the end, traditional loans proved the easiest option.
The U.K. decision to extend its loan is raising some eyebrows, though, including in the U.S. Moreover, Richard Aboulafia, vice president of Teal Group, says the move “wasn’t just provocative, it was needless, too.” EADS is cash rich, the analyst points out, and does not need government money. And, he says, “there are plenty of legal, or at least subtle, ways to achieve the exact same result of helping to make the A350XWB happen.”
The WTO’s decision will basically unfold in two phases. Within the next two weeks, the trade body is expected to issue an interim report—the final version rarely varies—on the U.S. complaint regarding the alleged subsidies to Airbus; the panel hearing the European Union counter-challenge is only now wrapping up its work and a verdict is not expected until year-end.
How the A350 would fare if the WTO sides with the U.S. in the pending ruling remains unclear, although industry officials suggest it could lead to Airbus being ordered to repay some of the government loans or to renegotiate them to market rates. Such a ruling—which would likely be appealed by the European Union—is expected to affect the most recent Airbus development programs, such as the A340-500/-600, A380 and now the A350.
The European case against the U.S. focuses largely on tax rebates secured by Boeing for the 787, as well as on funding to the U.S. contractor for its NASA and Pentagon-related activities.
The real long-term consequences, no matter how the WTO rules, are murky. One senior industry official in Europe notes that the decision will likely draw a lot of comment and headlines, but that it is unlikely to change the competitive dynamic between Airbus and Boeing or materially alter aircraft pricing.
Nevertheless, there are some potential near-term political implications, given that the WTO issue is unfolding just as Boeing and Airbus—through the Northrop Grumman/EADS team—are again about to go head-to-head on the U.S. Air Force tanker replacement program. Boeing backers have previously used the WTO battle as an argument as to why the Pentagon should not buy the A330-based tanker. The Air Force has staunchly resisted calls to link the two issues.
However, the European Union itself recently linked the WTO and tanker disputes. In its latest report on U.S. trade access barriers, issued in late July, the EU cites the tanker under its complaint about Boeing subsidies. The EU, noting its opposition to earlier iterations of the tanker program in which it said Boeing was favored, says it “will continue to monitor the situation.”
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