In the Joint Strike Fighter thread here, commenter Solomon asks an important question:
What are the rules to this debate? LM states that the AN/ALR-94 [the BAE Systems EW system on the F-22] is a world beater. Everyone believes it. but LM states that the same package, just more advanced, is installed on the F-35, and everyone says hogwash.
LM and the USAF state that the F-22 is the world's best fighter and everyone believes it. LM and the USAF say that the F-35 will be an excellent low-end complement to the F-22 and no one believes it.
Other nations have stated that the F-35 is exactly what they need to replace legacy airframes. no one believes it and many call those officials puppets, cheerleaders, stupid, naive, whatever and many cheer those responses.
I don't get it. You want affordable stealth - well, here it is. A multi-national program on a huge scale that should make spiral upgrades a cinch, yet no one wants to believe it.
First of all you have to consider what's at stake here. The JSF business plan, if fulfilled, results in a virtual fighter monopoly in the West and its allies. Whoever wins India will have a short lease on life in the business, but otherwise Typhoon, Gripen, Rafale and F-18 are fighting over crumbs and most if not all will exit the market before 2020. Unless you want to buy Russian you will have to buy JSF, and Lockheed Martin will likewise control all upgrades and modifications to the aircraft. This won't leave the customers (the US included) with a lot of negotiating room.
The JSF is unique in the degree of integration in its information systems. So far, for example, it has no open-standard transmit datalink, at least in stealth mode. The automated logistics system will continuously transmit operational information back to Fort Worth. Not only is it a coalition-optimized airplane, it's hard to see how it could be operated at all without direct, constant US support.
Neither of these applied to the F-22, which the US does not want to export - let's be realistic, if the Pentagon and LockMart wanted to sell the bloody thing to Japan, one Wisconsin congressman is not going to stop them.
Moreover, nobody actually claimed that the F-22 was the best fighter in the world. The most capable air-to-air fighter, yes - but too expensive and too limited in air-to-ground to do everything.
But in 2008 alone, we heard that:
- The JSF will achieve a 4:1 exchange ratio in air combat over any other fighter.
- The JSF will penetrate to its targets, negate or destroy threatening fighters and missiles, attack and escape without being detected.
- The JSF will cost less to acquire and operate than the Gripen NG, and by inference any fighter in the world.
- The JSF is lower-risk than the Gripen NG, despite the fact that the latter combines a simple modification of an in-service airframe with a proven engine.
These are lofty claims and have inspired a relatively well informed force of critics to ask difficult questions. For instance, you may be able to see the adversary first, but given AMRAAM's Pk-at-range limits, will that be enough? You may be stealthy against today's radars, but what about new or modernized systems that are clearly designed to work against low-RCS targets?
Why has the pace of flight-testing been so slow and how do you plan to finish SDD in 2014? Even if the F-35B works, is the rationale for STOVL today worth the cost?
If the US military aircraft enterprise - contractors and government - had a stellar record of delivering what they promise on time and on budget, one might be persuaded to accept their claims. But they don't.
There hasn't (for example) been one successful stealth warplane program since the F-117. The A-12 and Comanche were cancelled outright. The B-2 cost tens of billions to fix and is so costly to operate that efforts to sell more than 21 jets were unsuccessful. The F-22 works, but the current debate over whether to acquire more than 183 jets is driven to a great extent by the startling cost of maintenance and upgrades. JSF itself is already two and a half years behind the original schedule, and further problems are certainly not out of the question at this stage.
If your track record is Ishtar and Howard the Duck, and you tell me that you've got something that beats Gone With The Wind and Star Wars, you are going to have to prove it with more than a PowerPoint, or "trust me, but it's secret."
" A certain project is going to experience delays
" The same project is going to experience cost overruns
" The sales force of the project is hyping the product
This phenomenon is not unique to the JSF project, or indeed the defense industry in general.
"If your track record is Ishtar and Howard the Duck, and you tell me that you've got something that beats Gone With The Wind and Star Wars"
Are we then to conclude that the 4th generation Eurocanards are the Gone with the Wind and Star Wars to the F-22's and B-2's Ishtar and Howard the Duck? Please.
http://reporter.kro.nl/downloads/rand_pacific_view.pdf
Since Rand now has a dog in this fight with the USAF having a "think tank" established their Corporation, I don't know how valid their assertions are...but if they're true then not only do we need a full stable of F-22's but also the F-35B (the vulnerability of Kadena AB is shocking...found on slid 10), and F-35A's with several squadrons of upgraded/uprated F-15E's. One thing is sure, the Colonel who got into hot water for his statements concerning the Indian Air Force at Red Flag made a telling statement at the end of his video. A questioner asked about the F-35 and he stated that he would talk about that later. Defense politics is probably keeping us from knowing the real truth about this airplane and its capabilities, but SOMEBODY SOMEWHERE KNOWS BUT AIN'T TALKING! And until they do, we're all just guessing.
Sferrin - Analogy is a way of driving the point home.
Solomon - I remarked on that point at the time. One might speculate that the names of Moseley and Wynne might have run through the Colonel's mind when that question was asked...
"The JSF business plan, if fulfilled, results in a virtual fighter monopoly in the West and its allies"
That's the only thing that could account for what is amounting to almost irrational, animal panic on the part of the F-35 detractors.
B. Bolsøy
Oslo