Boeing has selected Raytheon to provide an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar for 224 USAF F-15Es.

I suspect it may be the first of several non-surprising such selections, even though in some respects AESAs are more generic than the custom-made mechanically scanned arrays of the past. I'm not holding my breath for Raytheon to dislodge Northrop Grumman from the F-16 either.

The radar marriages go back to the 1960s and 1970s, when General Dynamics picked Westinghouse's APG-66 for the F-16 and McDonnell Douglas chose Hughes for the Eagle and Hornet. (Back then we also had Norden, a Ku-band house, and GE.) They have worked out pretty well, with highlights such as Raytheon's black-project AESA for the F-15C and the excellent APG-66(V)2 for the F-16 MLU. In the process, the system integrators have gotten to know the radar people well, and know how the radars work.

Now, it could well be that radars are more easily interchanged in the digital age, and that Raytheon could deliver a plug-and-play replacement for an F-16. On the other hand, we've also seen the complex interplay between radar capabilities and operational flight program (OFP) software releases on the AESA-equipped Super Hornet.

But are the customers going to be comfortable with that? I'm not sure, and I think that the risk factor will keep those relationships stable for a few years.