It's a pretty rapid convergence, particularly given the production rates: the last 24 F-22s cost $180 million each. Of course, you have to caveat that the F-35A is less costly than the B and C, which are rolled into the $112 million average - but then the F-22 number is real!

I predict that the F-22 would have been cheaper than the F-35 will be given the same production rates.

Hi Sol,

Back in 2004, APA predicted the F-35A JSF would cost as much, if not more, than the F-22A on a per unit basis. This advice was based on risk based parametric analyses and later confirmed through risk based ordinal analysis (i.e. standard cost modelling).

The results of these analyses were provided to senior officials in both the Australian Dept of Defence, including ACM Angus Houston, and the Defence Materiel Organisation such as AVM John Harvey and Dr Steve Gumley AO, as well as a Joint Standing Committee and the Senate Estimates Committee of the Australia Parliament.

All this information has been up on the Air Power Australia web site for years.

Apart from being around three times more capable than the F-35A JSF will ever be, the F-22A and its production numbers have yet to get around the 'knee' of the production learning curve.

Since the F-22A is already in a form of "full rate production", increasing the production numbers will provide the economies of scale to pull the production costs and, thus, the 'per unit costs' down, just as is being claimed for the JSF Program.

According to APA modelling, an additional 100 x F-22A aircraft production should see the average unit flyaway cost (UFC) across an additional 100 aircraft build come in at around US$116 million per aircraft.

Remember, the original target average UFC for the F-22 Program was around US$50 million in 1991 dollars.

This is based on the data and the facts.

I hope this helps. This is not nonsense.

F-22A production has been running at around 20 jets per year for the past 4 years, including under the MYP.

Any claim that the JSF Program is running at "a faster rate" is one of the many logical fallacies (e.g. non-sequitur) which are the basis of this just-so-flawed JSF Program.

Time for America to wake up!

America, you are being duped and, in the process, you are allowing your allies to also be mislead.

Does this sound at all familiar?

GFC, anyone?

@Solomon

What jbierling was trying to say is that if they built as many F-22s as F-35's, the unit cost would be cheaper, which is true. Given that the per unit cost of the F-22 is quoted at $140 million/plane with 180 aircraft, and the F-35 is quoted at $112 million/plane with 2,500 aircraft, any reduction in F-35 purchases will likely drive costs above the F-22 unit price.

They should just restart F-22 production immediately before it's too late.