Marcase: It is true that the islands of Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire are located almost within visual range of the Venezuelan coast, but the first two do host U.S. Forward Operating Locations (FOLs) for the War on Drugs. These FOLs are gaining relative importance now that Ecuador is terminating the U.S. lease on the FOL at Eloy Alfaro Int'l Airport near the coastal city of Manta.

With such a U.S. presence on Aruba and Curacao, a Falklands-style Venezuelan invasion is less than likely, I would suggest, at least for the foreseeable future.

And don't forget the Netherlands does have the ability to rapidly reinforce its garrison force on the islands using the strategic mobility and expeditionary capabilities acquired over the past 15 years.

Edit: alright, I was a little too gloomy (add: submarines, 2 KDC-10s, 60 operational F-16AM, 16 deployable Apaches, 1 AASLT Bde, 1 Marn Bde) but still.

The FOLs are just that: locations. No sustaining base facilities (such as POL/ammo storage, bunkers/hangars) and shares facilities with the civilian airfield. Also, the US freedom of maneuver is restricted due to Dutch political insistence (unarmed ANG F-16s).

Perhaps not a fully fledged invasion, but enough harrasments by Flanker overflights or just basing (SAM) missiles to potentially threaten civillian flight paths would require attention that the Netherlands cannot provide.

It's a south American recipe for disaster; an ill-advised, ill-executed military demonstration which will be deterred, but which will force an after conflict discussion sponsored by the UN or OAS and "loose the war by winning the battle" kind of political solution for the Netherlands.

Yeah, right. Certain European NATO members will claim the Netherlands Antilles are located outside of NATOs area of responsibility (they're in the Caribean) and defer any "local problems" there to the UN, or such nonsense.