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A Defense Technology Blog
Doing the Math

Danger Room links to a CBS story on an allegedly disproportional number of suicides by veterans. Supporting an anecdotal piece on veterans of the current war, CBS pulls up statistics showing that veterans committed suicide at twice the rate of the average population.

Shock! Horror!

No.

In the US, male veterans outnumber female veterans 13:1. Since four times as many males as women commit suicide in the general population, you'd expect the rate among veterans to be close to the rate among males - 17.6/100,000 per year in 2002 - and indeed it is, if the CBS raw numbers are correct.

CBS also makes an issue of the fact that suicide rates among younger veterans exceed that of the general population by an even bigger margin - but again, that's what you'd expect, because in that age group, the male-to-female imbalance in suicide rates is greatest, almost six to one.

Suicide is tragedy. What it does not seem to be, among veterans, is an epidemic.

UPDATE: Welcome Instapundit readers! Thanks for the link. Ares is the defense blog of the Aviation Week & Space Technology group and the online branch of Defense Technology International, the group's new military-tech journal.

UPDATE:  RedState does some more legwork and slams another torpedo into the smoking, listing wreck of CBS News' credibility.

Tags: ar99veterans
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Demophilus wrote:
OK, Bill. Now you might compare combat veteran suicide rates to non-combat veteran suicide rates. Then, you might consider comparing suicide rates by conflict. After that, you might compare suicide rates by age group, veteran vs. non-veteran, combat vet vs. non-combat vet. If you still have time, you can compare combined arms suicide rates to rates in other MOS fields, like Graves Registration or Mortuary Affairs, vs. medics, or compare the suicide rates of military vs. non-military paramedical personnel.

After all that, you might be getting somewhere with your epidemiology. Until then, you're just stirring mud with CBS.

Let us know what you find.
11/14/2007 3:47 PM CST
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sgtyork wrote:
Wow, that's quite a list of requirements that you dropped on Bill there Demopholopholophus. You must be a really important person to be able to rattle off such an impressive list. You must also be a liberal, anxious to benefit from the real work of others.

I applaud the preemptive information about real veteran's public health statistics. History tells us that an important part of the left's losing the Viet Nam War was making veterans into mentally defective killers. Now that we are winning in Iraq, its time to pull out that card again.

Well, it isn't going to work this time.

Do your own statistical analysis, schmuck
11/14/2007 9:27 PM CST
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Demophilus wrote:
I'm not really important, or a liberal, putz boy. I'm a centrist, and a pragmatist, and I don't trust aviation experts to do epidemiology, or epidemiologists to design airplanes. And, FTR, I'm not "anxious to benefit from the real work of others". I carry my own water, like my Dad, and his Dad before him, and so on. No one's ever handed us anything, and any benefit that comes out of my little tete-a-tete with Bill will flow to veterans, not me.

If you can't see the common sense in that, it's your problem, not mine.

As for "History tells us that an important part of the left's losing the Viet Nam War was making veterans into mentally defective killers", you're tripping. The "left", whatever that is, didn't do either. outside of your opinions.

Sober up and get some sleep.

11/15/2007 1:13 AM CST
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Bill Sweetman wrote:
Demophilus,
That's all important stuff to look at, and (as you correctly point out) it's not my area of expertise. On the other hand, as your Greek philospher buddies pointed out while you were getting your butt handed to you at Thermopylae, it doesn't matter a pair of used dingo's kidneys whether I am an aviation expert, an icthyologist or a stamp collector. Argumentum ad hominem, if you don't mind me switching languages. What matters was whether the topline criticism of CBS' topline conclusion was correct, which so far it seems to have been.
11/15/2007 10:03 AM CST
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Gang, let's keep the invective down a bit. Spirited discussion is great. Schmuck, sober up, etc., is not. Thank you.
11/15/2007 4:50 PM CST
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Skyler wrote:
Learn to read the methodology before you slam it.
From the article:
"We asked the acting head of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Georgia, Steve Rathbun, to calculate the rate of suicide for 2004 to 2005. Rathbun adjusted the rates of suicide for age, gender and any potential error in the gathering of the raw data by the states."

There you go. They already thought of that blatantly obvious point and corrected their data. I understand why you'd miss this subtle point though, I mean the methodology summary was all of 4 paragraphs long.
11/16/2007 3:10 PM CST
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Bill Sweetman wrote:
Skyler,
Thanks for the observation.
However the research was done, however, the central point remains intact. The case for the "suicide epidemic" is based on the statement that the suicide rate for veterans is twice that of the average population. But this is misleading, simply because the veteran population is 93 per cent male.
Quite simply, the CBS veteran-suicide rate is in line with average male suicide rates. You don't need to dig into their own research to know that that comparison undermines the notion of an epidemic.
11/16/2007 5:41 PM CST
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jcdurbant wrote:
Was going to suggest the over-representation of the elerly in the vet population (as opposed to the overall population (up to three times: 38.4 vs. 12.4%) who happen to top the suicide rates (at least for the over-75 bunch), but then I saw that they had already factored that in ...
11/21/2007 5:01 AM CST
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jcdurbant wrote:
How about checking out the foreign CIVILIAN suicide rates to see how terrible US vets have it ?

Like the French or Japanese ones (19 and 24 per 100 000)!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_and_methodology_of_suicide
11/21/2007 5:43 AM CST
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