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A Defense Technology Blog
What Did The Air Force Really Want?

Dr Rebecca Grant probably isn't going to get offered a job in the Gates team.

In a strongly worded brief, the respected air power analyst argues that the USAF did have a cogent, established need for another 60 F-22s - but never had a chance to present it before Gates slammed a gag order on all senior officers involved in the budget process.

Gates kept Bush-Rumsfeld holdovers in crucial program analysis posts and formed a small team to cut the budget in secret, a technique he mastered as CIA director.  Next, in February 2009, Gates did what no previous Secretary of Defense had done.  He directed top uniformed officers to sign non-disclosure agreements pledging not to talk about the budget process – even to other senior officers in their services. 

The result was that no officer could talk about any of the analysis work without defying the Secretary's orders. Grant also points out that if the USAF really had no need for the extra aircraft, service chief Gen. Norton Schwartz could have said so at any time last year - but didn't. 

It makes a lot of sense. Recall, too, what Maj Gen Jay Lindell, director for Global Power Programs in the USAF's acquisitions office - and the head of the team responsible for determining the best mix of F-22s and F-35s - said last month at our own Defense Technology and Requirements conference.

Asked about the "optimal ratio" of F-35s to F-22s, Lindell said: "It depends on what we can afford but the studies and analysis show a mix with an increased number of F-22s". The argument rested mainly on the F-22's higher speed and air-to-air capability, translating into fewer aircraft needed to cover a given area:  in air-to-air, six F-22s were worth ten F-35s. 

Lindell pointed out later that part of the USAF analysis reflected the fact that a 24-aircraft squadron was more efficient than an 18-aircraft squadron, because both have the same test and support equipment and in some cases need the same minimum number of specialist technicians.

So there was a "military case" for more F-22s;  but Gates made sure that it was never presented. As Grant concludes:   "Air Combat Command, whose airmen fly and maintain F-22s and other fighters, is left to pick up the pieces after this shattering break in faith."

Tags: ar99gatesf-22
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I dunno, shattering break in faith seems a bit dramatic doesn't it? to me, a shattering break in faith would be something more like, the USAF lobbies that the army can't have any fixed wing aircraft, but then drags up on them and won't provide the assets they need to the point that the army has to create it's own air wing....which goes on to achieve a kill ratio of something like 2500 to 0........which is quite a bit better than the F-22 kill ratio to date. Seems more shattering than just getting your toys taken away from you.
4/10/2009 11:50 AM CDT
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John wrote:
The Air Force wants more F-22s, so therefore their studies and analysis are going to fall in line with that thinking. Snake and nape has a point...the Air Force can't even handle UASs properly and we should just take their word for it that their vision of the future of air power is the way to go.
4/10/2009 1:56 PM CDT
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Skeptic's prediction: a year from now it will be business as usual. Congress will have added back funds for more F-22s and C-17s; stopped them retiring Guard F-15s, F-16s and A-10s; forced a split buy on KC-X; made them buy Increment 1 VH-71s; and cut back on F-35 procurement to fund it all
4/10/2009 2:28 PM CDT
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Dufus wrote:
Optimist's prediction: a year from now congress will have forced the AF into buying at least another 20 -40 F-22s and add funding to keep the line open through 2011. Guard F-15s and A-10s will not be retired, yet. Defer KC-X and re engine KC-135Es to R standard. Defer VH-71 as it is not needed. Continue to accelerate F-35 procurement since it is needed. The funds will come from cancellation of VH-71 and deferment of KC-X.
4/10/2009 2:45 PM CDT
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sferrin wrote:
The part that disappoints me the most is not one person in the USAF chain of command had the spine to stand up and say that Gates was full of it. Sign of the times I suppose.
4/10/2009 3:59 PM CDT
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Dufus wrote:
Don't be surprised if some "enterprising" legislator from Georgia or Washington reminds General Schwartz about his remarks about the need for 60 more Raptors prior to signing glorious Chairman Gates' gag order. Don't be surprised if some "inquiring" legislator digs up all the internal air force studies that say they need more F-22s. We have not yet sunk that far into stupidity. Many of Gates cuts will not stand the test of Congress.
4/10/2009 4:21 PM CDT
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Dufus wrote:
So tell me John. If not the air Force, then who are the experts as to how many and what they need?
4/10/2009 4:22 PM CDT
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John wrote:
The Air Force is still a fighter pilot institution at heart yearning for a Red Flag type engagement. Their obsession with stealthing the entire force... when they don't have enough conventional aircraft to cover their duties...is troubling.

To answer your question, it depends on your overall grand strategy and strategic goals; Gates has one-the Air Force?-clueless.

The Army and Marines currently complain about Air Force pilots not coming low enough to the ground as their Navy counterparts do to provide ground support. The Air Force for the first time decided to add ground support to Red Flag-I wonder why?

The Army and Marines have also complained about the Air Force's lack of responsiveness to their increased needs for UASs, causing the Army to break off forming its own unit.

These examples (and many more I wont mention) shows that the Air Force is once again clueless and shouldn't be left to their Eddie Rickenbacker inclinations.
4/10/2009 5:35 PM CDT
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ELP wrote:
The Army and Marines currently complain about Air Force pilots not coming low enough to the ground as their Navy counterparts do to provide ground support. The Air Force for the first time decided to add ground support to Red Flag-I wonder why?

The Army and Marines have also complained about the Air Force's lack of responsiveness to their increased needs for UASs, causing the Army to break off forming its own unit.

A totally baseless claim.... And...the "low enough" thing is pure BS when you consider most CAS is now done with PGMs from up high and the once in a while strafing run and no-shooting show of force.

http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123143676


4/10/2009 5:48 PM CDT
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Solomon wrote:
Graham,

i just don't buy it. the economy and the current deficit will all contribute to the need to cut somewhere. of all the Senator's complaining, the people on the Armed Services Committee have been strangely silent. also Hawk like democrats have been silent as well. Jim Webb is the one canary in the coal mine i was looking for if their was going to be resistance from southern democrats. he's been silent. with the possibility of cuts in other parts of the budget i really do believe dems will get in line. with the thought that further cuts could be rammed forward in the defense budget with opposition to the current plan, i believe that republicans will chill also. i think Obama will get what he wants in this one.
4/10/2009 6:00 PM CDT
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