It’s a question with no clear answer. But it’s a question that keeps coming up as the Dassault multi-role fighter fails to secure an export buyer.

And it has to be asked again, now that the Indian government has kicked the Dassault strike fighter out of its MMRCA competition – early, before even the flight evaluation, when the Boeing F/A-18E/F, Lockheed Martin F-16, RSK MiG-35, and Saab Gripen have been left in the running.

What’s more, the French contractor was left in the dark over what was coming, with Dassault officials indicating they were surprised, even skeptical their dismissal could be true.

On the face of it, there’s no reason why Rafale has been such a dog in competitions. France remains the only customer and the Rafale the only western fighter available for export without a foreign customer to its name.

Even in countries when Rafale was close to securing a buyer, such as Morocco, the deal didn’t close. The country instead opted for F-16s.

It’s not for lack of government support, either. French president Nicolas Sarkozy has been acting as the chief salesman for his country’s aerospace and defense industry, securing a submarine deal in Brazil, Airbus sales to Libya, and not missed an opportunity during a recent tour to the Middle East to tout industry products. In fact, after losing out to the F-16 in Morocco, Paris stepped up its support for aerospace and defense exports.

And there’s also nothing obviously wrong with Rafale from a technical standpoint. The aircraft performance is sound – certainly with no obvious deficiencies when compared to rivals – the avionics suite is at a modern standard with good systems integration, and reliability problems, which existed early on, appear to have been ironed out.

The Rafale can even claim to have earned its combat credentials, having deployed to Afghanistan and dropped bombs. While it was a limited engagement – relying on others to provide laser targeting as it dropped LGBs – having a war record is something competitors like the Eurofighter Typhoon and Saab Gripen can’t claim.

Moreover, in some respects the Rafale has clearer upgrade strategy than others. An active electronically scanned radar system is in development, and several other upgrades are in the works. Similarly, the aircraft can already carry a range of air-to-air and precision air-to-ground weapons, with more on the horizon.

The Indian situation is somewhat special, certainly. Dassault, for a long time, was pushing the Mirage 2000 and, at one point, basically offered the entire production line to India. Dassault thought it had the deal locked up, but New Delhi was slow to finalize terms and eventually opened the bidding up to others. Frustrated and annoyed at India’s decision, Dassault shuttered the Mirage 2000 line and took that aircraft off the table, leaving only Rafale to offer.

That said, the Indian decision is a big set-back for Dassault, if for no other reason than the size of the program with at least 126 aircraft to be ordered.

But it is not the final word for Rafale in the export realm, either. The fighter remains in the running in competitions in Brazil and in Switzerland, although Bern has delayed an announcement until at least 2010.

There are several other locations where Dassault is hoping it can secure a Rafale sale, such as Libya, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. And while at this point any success would be welcome, those aren’t real competitions, so a contract would come with money, but no bragging rights.

[Photo: French air force]