China Stealth -- Maybe, Maybe Not
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Posted
by David A. Fulghum at
11/18/2009 1:52 PM CST
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By means fair and foul, China has assembled the technical know-how to build a more advanced fighter. Its latest indigenous design is the J-10 which went into service in 2007, but military and industrial leaders say they will field a stealthy, supercruise aircraft in 8-10 years.
U.S. aerospace industry and intelligence officials agree that China can build a more capable fighter, but doubt that it will rival the F-22 or even the slower, larger-signature F-35. Still unknown is whether China can generate a unique home-grown design, build it in large production numbers and arm it with adequate weapons.
“You need a combination of the right shape, structural design, surface coatings, aerodynamic performance and flight control system designs,” says a senior U.S. Air Force official. “It’s not magic, but there’s still a lot of art in it.”
Russian surface-to-air missile engineers in what was once the separate Antey and Almaz air defense design bureau reinforced that observation in conversation with Aviation Week. They had been sifting through the debris of the F-117 shot down in Serbia. They complained that having all the pieces still did not give them all the details they needed to clearly understand how the aircraft’s first-generation stealth system worked as a total system.
A U.S. intelligence official and veteran analyst of China’s airpower, summarized his view of the country's access to advanced technologies:
“Between legal, quasi-legal [diverted], and espionage-based tech transfer, I'm sure that China has obtained most of the data available on how we build our stealthy aircraft structures and the materials involved,” the intelligence official says. “They also have taken full advantage of our open patent system, our open engineering undergrad and grad schools, our publish-or-perish academic promotion process, and the ease with which an integrated, centralized [government] can thwart artificial, social-democratic distinctions between military, police, civil and commercial data.”
Ages of the F-22 and B-2 designs are a factor. They have given Chinese researchers more than 20 years to chase down those technologies. The B-2 has already gone through its first service life extension program.
“[With] what they've gotten from us, Japan, [Korea], Russia, and the European Union, they have access to all they need data-wise,” the intelligence official says. “Their only limitations are investment cash and the ability to work out production process engineering and integration, which we still do better than anyone. [Those skills] really reflect corporate culture and learning curve more than anything.”
“Right now, the only arms race China is really facing is with India, and [Beijing is] winning,” the intelligence official says.
While that arms race has no direct impact on the U.S. at least some U.S. planners believe it will accelerate China’s large-force, war-making capability, while the U.S. is focusing its investments and technology development on limited-war and insurgency-type conflicts.
“In my view, we're wasting billions on slow and low-flying MC-12s [surveillance aircraft], MQ-1/-9 [remotely piloted aircraft], C-27J [light transports], and less-than-world-class, lowest-common-denominator, design-to-price [F-35] JSF,” the intelligence official says.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/nov/19/inside-the-ring-37209361/
Rather than re-invent the wheel, here is what was posted over there:
re: DIA on China's new fighter
Looks like obfuscation and confabulation are the norm from the Office of the Secretary for Defense.
The claim that the F-35 JSF is going to be a Fifth Generation Fighter (or, rather, already is a truly Fifth Generation Fighter ) is the keystone to the arch of claims that have the Hon Robert Gates declaring that America must have this aircraft .
However, mates from Down Under disagree and show why the JSF is not a Fifth Generation Fighter by providing a peer comparison between the capabilities of the F-22 Raptor and those going into other Fifth Generation Fighters (the Russian T-50 PAK-FA and Chinese J-12/J-XX programs) and those capabilities being marketed as the JSF.
This comparison can be found on the Air Power Australia website (http://www.ausairpower.net ) under the catchy title of:
"Mr Secretary - Why Does the Pentagon Say the JSF is a 5th Generation Fighter . . Really?"
(http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-081109-1.html)
The comparison with the 4++ Gen Su-35S Flanker makes for an interesting read.
This aircraft is obviously not your Fathers Flanker.
What does the Hon Robert Gates have to say about all of this, I wonder?
Still hoping that the F-111 will be chosen for NACC and that the F-22 will be magically released for export I see. Lovely. You couldn't perhaps stick to the topic though, could you? I'm quite interested to see what the Chinese might come up with...
There are some details to work out, but with the US, the UK, France, Sweden, and Russia all working on LO UCAVS, this ain't rocket science any more.