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A Defense Technology Blog
JSF Is Fine, Says LockMart Consultant
"If you don't follow the defense business closely, then you can be excused for believing that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is in trouble." So says Washington defense uber-source Dr Loren Thompson, of the Lexington Institute, in a new issue brief on the JSF. "But the F-35 program isn't really all that troubled," he reassures us.

That settles it. I feel much better now. Both the Washington Post and the New York Times have tagged Dr Thompson as a Lockheed Martin consultant in the past few months, but we know that he would never allow such considerations to color his views.

The more serious concern is that the issue brief makes no sense.

The first of four points in the brief is that "there is no alternative" to the JSF. Even if that's true (Boeing would disagree in the case of the Navy, and lots of people in the case of export customers) it does not mean that the program is going well. At best, the trashing of alternatives implies that JSF will be continued no matter what, at any cost and on any timescale. But that's not success:  with flat budgets, such an outcome will gut US and allied air power.

The good doctor's second point is that other programs (like the A400M) are doing worse than the F-35, which is "months behind schedule".

What schedule exactly?

The F-35 is months, in some respects almost a year,
behind the schedule established in May 2008, which was a year later than the 2005 schedule, which in turn was 18 months behind the original schedule that was set in 2001.

Next:  "The design concept is sound". This statement is broad enough to sound good without meaning a lot. Thompson appears to be suggesting that the F-35 is a low-risk project - but if so, why is it taking so long? And it's exactly where he cites advantages - in building a family of aircraft in large numbers - where the program faces challenges.

Finally, "the development strategy is refined". The development team, Thompson says, has learned lessons from the F-22, spent money to reduce risks and used new tools to manage the program. But look at the results. 

The F-35 has been in full-scale development for just over eight years. At its own eight-year point, by mid-1999, the F-22 had logged 275 flight hours, over twice the F-35's total, supercruised at Mach 1.5, and was preparing for tests at 70 degrees angle of attack - compared to which, the F-35 hasn't made it to baby steps.

Neither is there much argument that the F-22 was a bigger step forward in aircraft design than the F-35 - a supercruiser, the pioneer of the F-35's avionics integration, more agile, probably stealthier, and with all-new engines. So I'm a little unclear about what beneficial lessons have been learned.

Tags: ar99lorenthompsonjsf
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viperfan wrote:
Could it be that LM is the GM of the aerospace industry ?

GM thought a big group with common technical platforms and integrated supplier base for a range of popular brands would create a highly profitable business.

Instead they lost track of every program in their desire to become ever more cost-efficient (and soul-less).

Evidence suggests that the US aerospace industry was a lot more productive during years of real domestic competition.
12/2/2009 7:02 AM CST
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Bill Sweetman wrote:
JSF being the X-Car or, Chthulu forbid, the Pontiac Aztek?
12/2/2009 8:17 AM CST
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ACESII wrote:
I'm getting more and more concerned that Loren Thompson is being used as a consultant. He has lost credibility in the Defense arena when he made non-fact based comments about the alternate engine for JSF. He also said it made sense to have two Tanker aircraft, but criticized the alternate engine because it would double the cost and the logistics footprint having two propulsion systems. I guess having two Tanker aircraft would not double anything?????? Back to his comments made about the "JSF is Fine". Typical Thompson response that is vague, no facts and no substance; he did'nt say anything. Do people/organizations actually pay this guy? I've been in the industry for 30 years and Loren Thompson has never impressed me. The industry should wise up and get him off their payroll, starting with the Lexington Institute which as an organization is also loosing credibility letting guys like Thompson make comments in their name.
12/2/2009 8:34 AM CST
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FRED wrote:
'Typical Thompson response that is vague, no facts and no substance; he didn't say anything'
Hey if Mr Thompson is looking for a career change, we're having elections in this country (UK) in 2010 - sounds to me as if he'd make a brilliant politician with a bright future ahead of him.
12/2/2009 9:17 AM CST
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FRED wrote:
It would have been far more sensible and cost effective for the UK Government to have ordered the naval version of the Dassault Rafale (as painful as that may be for us Brits)!
Slight problem being of course that our 2 new carriers, if or when they're built, will not be 'nuke' powered (probobly to keep the 'Greens' happy). They'll be powered by newly designed RR turbines which won't offer enough additional power for a catapult system. BAe/Vosper have stated, (I believe) that an add-on power system would be available 'in the future' should a catapult system be required.

Also what really pi$$e$ me off is that LM again is giving us the mushroom treatment by refusing to release the F-35 source codes. (This was all over the British press last week). We're supposed to be a 'Tier 1' supplier/partner in this ludicrous venture and have had the pleasure of, so far, spending £2B and counting.
I think LM need to be reminded that we gave to the USG for free, little things like, you know, the Jet engine (Frank Whittle's design) and radar.
Seems like LM is happy for our 'special relationship' to continue as long as we put up and shut up.
Lm's holy grail of 'stealth' is for glossy marketing mags. It's a fact easily found on-line that russian radar systems can spot 'holes' in naturally occuring atmospheric background noise. Where there's a hole is probobly were there's a 'stealthy' aircraft. The Serbs were using Russian-built radar when they shot down the 'stealthy' F-117 10 years ago. So fine, design as much as possible using RCS software and use as much RAM as possible, but don't sell it as if its some kind of magic formula.
12/2/2009 9:55 AM CST
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RSF wrote:
I'm with you Bill, I just feel so MUCH better now that Dr. Feel Good, er, I mean Dr. Thompson has reminded us of just how good the JSF program is.

As I stated on ELP's blog, this article is just a compilation of the same mind numbing disinformation and nonsense regurgitated from the many LM PowerPoint presentations that have been making the rounds for the last several years.

And yes the Pontiac Aztek is a perfect comparison to the JSF in so many ways...
12/2/2009 11:42 PM CST
JSF Is Fine, Says LockMart Consultant
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