Inside the Air Force(ITAF) is reporting that a Pentagon-ordered revisit of F-35 cost projections by the independent Joint Estimate Team (JET) "affirms earlier findings that substantially more money and time will be required" to complete development than the program says (story here, subscriber only).
This is not a surprise. The JSF Joint Program Office and Lockheed Martin execs have said previously they did not expect the JET to revise its estimate, primarily because there has not been enough progress to persuade the JET to put aside legacy data and accept the progam's projections for flight-test productivity.
But it is a concern for F-35 supporters because, the ITAF story says, based on the JET's higher estimate the program runs the risk of crossing the 25% tripwire and triggering a critical breach of Nunn-McCurdy limits on program cost growth.
Acquisition reform legislation enacted in May, says the story, "requires the Pentagon to presume termination of any program with a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach. Should the Pentagon want to retain the program, as it most certainly would, it would have to be restructured and recertified" as essential to national security.
Lockheed Martin has responded to the ITAF story, repeating what it has said previously, that they "disagree with [the JET] conclusions, which we believe are driven by legacy-based assumptions regarding the time required to deliver the remaining SDD aircraft, complete development, and conduct the flight-test campaign.
"Eleven SDD aircraft have been delivered thus far and the remaining eight jets are demonstrating greatly improved span times, as are the 31 LRIP aircraft now in production. We are below the [government's] Selected Acquisition Report estimate for production costs... The program is early in the flight-test phase, so it is much too soon to conclude that the expected payoffs will not be realized."
Lockheed Martin goes on to "acknowledge that modest risk to our cost and schedule baselines exist, but we envision no scenario that would justify a substantial delay to completion of development or transition to production". That said, as Bill's earlier post makes clear, there is "anxiety" within the program about meeting the milestones required to begin full-rate flight testing.
Since Lockheed is so confident in themselves let them sign a strict contract that guarantees specific program costs, specific delivery schedules and other development milestones.
And if they fail... they pick up the bill for the extra development costs. And penalties for the delays.
Tango, that makes WAY too much sense. With an attitude like that, you could never be a procurement bureaucrat, a politician, or an executive working for a corporation dependent on government contracts. What silly boy you are.
That said, as Bill's earlier post makes clear, there is "anxiety" within the program about meeting the milestones required to begin full-rate flight testing.
Good. Call it pressure to produce, anxiety, stress to succeed....whatever works. I'm just surprised that this is being reported. Stress to get the job done is found throughout society. In every class room on test day (for the students that care)...to the garbage man who has to pick up trash in the neighborhood by a certain time. Stress to get the job done is a good thing. Hopefully they haven't been goaded by the critics to put forth an overly optimistic schedule but you can look at many programs, both here in the US and overseas and you see the same pressure. From the A400 to the 787 to the F-35. It was in the F-16, F-15 and Harrier programs. ITS NOTHING NEW!
Regarding the JET estimation. Again, really a non story. Did we really believe that they would change their original assessment? You have a group designed to produce worst case scenarios to policy makers. The outcome was fully expected.
Side note. How are you able to keep LM ads with the tone of some of the reports? I laugh hard when I see an ad from LM on the same page that has an article savaging their program. Amazing.
Obama will get Gates to declare the F-35 is an obsolete relic of the Cold War,and will limit the overall purchase to 187 F-35's. Gates will then declare that 3,500 Reaper drones will be bought to fulfill the fighter/strike needs of the USAF. The Russians & Chicoms will laugh even louder than they are now.
SEC. 133. REPORT ON 4.5 GENERATION FIGHTER PROCUREMENT.
(a) In General- Not later than 90 days after the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the congressional defense committees a report on 4.5 generation fighter aircraft procurement. The report shall include the following:
(1) The number of 4.5 generation fighter aircraft for procurement for fiscal years 2011 through 2025 necessary to fulfill the requirement of the Air Force to maintain not less than 2,200 tactical fighter aircraft.
(2) The estimated procurement costs for those aircraft if procured through single year procurement contracts.
(3) The estimated procurement costs for those aircraft if procured through multiyear procurement contracts.
(4) The estimated savings that could be derived from the procurement of those aircraft through a multiyear procurement contract, and whether the Secretary determines the amount of those savings to be substantial.
(5) A discussion comparing the costs and benefits of obtaining those aircraft through annual procurement contracts with the costs and benefits of obtaining those aircraft through a multiyear procurement contract.
(6) A discussion regarding the availability and feasibility of F-35s in fiscal years 2015 through fiscal year 2025 to proportionally and concurrently recapitalize the Air National Guard.
(7) The recommendations of the Secretary regarding whether Congress should authorize a multiyear procurement contract for 4.5 generation fighter aircraft.
(b) Certifications- If the Secretary recommends under subsection (a)(7) that Congress authorize a multiyear procurement contract for 4.5 generation fighter aircraft, the Secretary shall submit to Congress ... for fiscal year 2011.
(c) 4.5 Generation Fighter Aircraft Defined- In this section, the term `4.5 generation fighter aircraft' means current fighter aircraft, including the F-15, F-16, and F-18, that--
(1) have advanced capabilities, including--
(A) AESA radar;
(B) high capacity data-link; and
(C) enhanced avionics; and
(2) have the ability to deploy current and reasonably foreseeable advanced armaments.
Dismissing the entire body of experience of flight testing and its role in aircraft development as "legacy-based assumptions" is arrogance on a cosmic scale. The JSF team will be entitled to their attitude when they have demonstrated that they are right.
The standard definition of chutzpah - to slaughter your parents and then throw yourself upon the mercy of the court because you are an orphan - is now obsolete, replaced by LM's claim, reported elsewhere, that nobody can say for sure how flight test will proceed, because so little of it has been done so far.
Here's the deal. You can be sure that when Gates visited LM a while back he laid down the law and that LM knows exactly what is expected of them. And you can be just as certain that LM got the message. Now mere weeks later you have a couple "aids" calling for restructuring. I don't know if it's a cynical attempt to screw things up or if they really are that clueless. The F-35 program is huge with literally thousands of suppliers and these two chuckle heads act like they're driving a Ferrari. They're not. A program this big has the agility of the NASA crawler with a Saturn V on it and when you direct it it's going to take a while to react if you don't want diasterous results. The message Gates gave is percolating through the system and beginning to be reacted to but it's going to take time for those efforts to appear as results at the other end of the line. That's the way reality works. Let LM do it's job and come back in six months and evaluate where they are. This is an aircraft that is going to be in service for 40 years and thinking it's going to help things by behaving like the Keystone Cops is the height of stupidity.
Obamanite: Speaking of "silly boys" you're obviously unaware that LM DOES pay penalties for delays. Like I've said before, you should heed Twain.
LM's "job" is to create earnings per share for its investors.
If that means to agressively market, over-sell, not speak the whole truth, or whatever one would describe their arrogant position on a highly complex government sponsored defense program to be, then indeed they will do so.
They lack the credibility and historical experience on delivering products on schedule and on the originally estimated costs. Saying you're on schedule when the schedule is continuously allowed to be pushed forward is at the minimum deceiving to the tax payers.
Keep the burners lit. It's *your* money and *your* defense capability we're talking about.
Just a few comments: Nice work Geogen with the 4.5 generation procurement info. Perhaps a fall back plan if the F-35 development continues at the present glacial pace? Getting back to the JET report, they have accurately forecast in the past much of what has occurred. To outright dismiss the new report without acknowledging the serious development issues to date does not seem prudent. A Nunn-Mcurdy breach might be the best thing that could happen to the JSF at this point. LM should be put on a short leash and made to set and meet realistic time-lines and deadlines just like everyone else in the aerospace world. Less PR spin, and a lot more test flying would be a good place to start.
Perhaps project development of the variants should better match the current needs? Since the STOVL F-35B is the most complex of the three to develop/produce, and the current US needs are most acute for the USAF/USN (experiencing fighter shortages), changing priorities might look something like this:
1. F-35A - USAF/US Air National Guard/International Partners - IOC 2012-2015 2. F-35C - USN - IOC 2013-2015 3. F-35B - US Marines/UK/International Partners - IOC after 2015 (2015-2018)
Since Lockheed is so confident in themselves let them sign a strict contract that guarantees specific program costs, specific delivery schedules and other development milestones.
And if they fail... they pick up the bill for the extra development costs. And penalties for the delays.
Good. Call it pressure to produce, anxiety, stress to succeed....whatever works. I'm just surprised that this is being reported. Stress to get the job done is found throughout society. In every class room on test day (for the students that care)...to the garbage man who has to pick up trash in the neighborhood by a certain time. Stress to get the job done is a good thing. Hopefully they haven't been goaded by the critics to put forth an overly optimistic schedule but you can look at many programs, both here in the US and overseas and you see the same pressure. From the A400 to the 787 to the F-35. It was in the F-16, F-15 and Harrier programs. ITS NOTHING NEW!
Regarding the JET estimation. Again, really a non story. Did we really believe that they would change their original assessment? You have a group designed to produce worst case scenarios to policy makers. The outcome was fully expected.
Side note. How are you able to keep LM ads with the tone of some of the reports? I laugh hard when I see an ad from LM on the same page that has an article savaging their program. Amazing.
H.R.2647
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010
---------------------------------------------------------
SEC. 133. REPORT ON 4.5 GENERATION FIGHTER PROCUREMENT.
(a) In General- Not later than 90 days after the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the congressional defense committees a report on 4.5 generation fighter aircraft procurement. The report shall include the following:
(1) The number of 4.5 generation fighter aircraft for procurement for fiscal years 2011 through 2025 necessary to fulfill the requirement of the Air Force to maintain not less than 2,200 tactical fighter aircraft.
(2) The estimated procurement costs for those aircraft if procured through single year procurement contracts.
(3) The estimated procurement costs for those aircraft if procured through multiyear procurement contracts.
(4) The estimated savings that could be derived from the procurement of those aircraft through a multiyear procurement contract, and whether the Secretary determines the amount of those savings to be substantial.
(5) A discussion comparing the costs and benefits of obtaining those aircraft through annual procurement contracts with the costs and benefits of obtaining those aircraft through a multiyear procurement contract.
(6) A discussion regarding the availability and feasibility of F-35s in fiscal years 2015 through fiscal year 2025 to proportionally and concurrently recapitalize the Air National Guard.
(7) The recommendations of the Secretary regarding whether Congress should authorize a multiyear procurement contract for 4.5 generation fighter aircraft.
(b) Certifications- If the Secretary recommends under subsection (a)(7) that Congress authorize a multiyear procurement contract for 4.5 generation fighter aircraft, the Secretary shall submit to Congress ... for fiscal year 2011.
(c) 4.5 Generation Fighter Aircraft Defined- In this section, the term `4.5 generation fighter aircraft' means current fighter aircraft, including the F-15, F-16, and F-18, that--
(1) have advanced capabilities, including--
(A) AESA radar;
(B) high capacity data-link; and
(C) enhanced avionics; and
(2) have the ability to deploy current and reasonably foreseeable advanced armaments.
Dismissing the entire body of experience of flight testing and its role in aircraft development as "legacy-based assumptions" is arrogance on a cosmic scale. The JSF team will be entitled to their attitude when they have demonstrated that they are right.
The standard definition of chutzpah - to slaughter your parents and then throw yourself upon the mercy of the court because you are an orphan - is now obsolete, replaced by LM's claim, reported elsewhere, that nobody can say for sure how flight test will proceed, because so little of it has been done so far.
Obamanite: Speaking of "silly boys" you're obviously unaware that LM DOES pay penalties for delays. Like I've said before, you should heed Twain.
If that means to agressively market, over-sell, not speak the whole truth, or whatever one would describe their arrogant position on a highly complex government sponsored defense program to be, then indeed they will do so.
They lack the credibility and historical experience on delivering products on schedule and on the originally estimated costs. Saying you're on schedule when the schedule is continuously allowed to be pushed forward is at the minimum deceiving to the tax payers.
Keep the burners lit. It's *your* money and *your* defense capability we're talking about.
1. F-35A - USAF/US Air National Guard/International Partners - IOC 2012-2015
2. F-35C - USN - IOC 2013-2015
3. F-35B - US Marines/UK/International Partners - IOC after 2015 (2015-2018)