GBI Out, SM-3 In -- New Plans For Europe's BMD
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Posted
by Amy Butler at
9/17/2009 12:18 PM CDT
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Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff USMC Gen. James Cartwright today announced new plans for ballistic missile defense of Europe and deployed US forces there.
The 10 two-stage GBIs in Poland and a long-range radar in the Czech Republic are now scrapped, in favor of a sea- and land-based SM-3 architecture that will be implemented in four phases.
Phase 1 -- already started - operational by 2011: Patriot and Pac-3 terminal defenses, the first Thaad will deploy within a year to Europe, as well for terminal defenses. SM-3 Block IA, already deployed in the eastern Mediterranean, will be deployed in "larger numbers," Cartwright says.
Phase 2 -- by 2015: SM-3 Block IB -- with a two-color IR and new DACS -- will be added to ships and in a land-based configuration. Also, airborne sensors will be added. Cartwright didn't outline which ones, but MDA has already begun testing the use of Predator and its EO/IR ball for ballistic missile plume detection and tracking.
Phase 3 -- by 2018: SM-3 Block IIA, a codevelopment with Japan to produce a 21-in booster (over the current, 14-in. design) will come online. Three sites will cover all of Europe, Cartwright says. This will include land- and ship-based interceptors and will be designed to counter IRBMs and shorter range threats.
Phase 4 -- by 2020: Cartwright says an SM-3 Block IIB (I think this is new -- maybe it includes additional velocity at separation?) will come online and begin to address the ICBM threat from Iran.
There was a multi-pronged rationale for the shift:
1) Cost -- Cartwright listed the per-unit prices for interceptors as follows:
GBI - $70M
SM-3 IA - $9.5-$10M
SM-3IB - $13-$15M
Thaad -- $9M
Patriot -- $3.3M
This speaks for itself.
2) Gates, Cartwright say there is a new intelligence assessment.
*The Iran ICBM threat has progressed more slowly than expected.
*The medium- and IRBM threat is prolifering faster than anticipated, producing a "raid" threat that hundreds of these missiles launched at once.
3) Cartwright says this could foster international cooperation through the incorporation of foreign Aegis ships and other missile defense systems, such as the Israeli Arrow.
Unstated in the initial part of the press conference, but certainly a factor overall, was Russia's ire at the GBI plan. Gates says that the new architecture should address Russia's "unfounded" concerns that the GBIs could target Moscow, although it was not done to appease Russia.
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I have never been a fan of GBI's in Europe due to geopolical concerns but I am less of a fan of turning the most advanced destroyers in the world into missile barges.
It may only be temporary until land based SM3's are up and running but it seems like it would be more cost effective and allow for greater force projection if GBI's were put in the ground now and then removed (or kept in place) when ground based SM3s come online rather than saddling USN with costs and limiting their reach.
The Czech radar and C3 HQ would've been a big one though, so that's money saved. Poland and the Czech republic will also miss out on the additional funds the US would pay for housing all those missile troops (and their families).
Russia must just love the prospect of having US surface battle groups patrol the Black Sea on BMD patrol.
Link-16 already talks to NATO AWACS, European (that is Spanish, Norwegian, German and Dutch) AEGIS frigates and Patriot/MEADS batteries, so that's old tech. The Israeli ARROW is already 'dialed in' with Cheyenne Mountain for IRBM early warning - which was one of the original requirements and promised after the 1991 Scud scare.
The Block II (or Block 10/12) SM-3 is more looking like a 'wide bodied' Patriot compared to the original Standard missile, I wonder if the IIB variant will still fit in MK.41 VLS systems or will be confined to land-based silos.
The Block IIB was to be replaced by the cancelled (Lockheed or Raytheon) Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV). I wonder if that program will be revived.
For info, click on the "SM3" tag in Amy's post above.
Aware ground based SM3s are on the way (last paragraph of post). But 2015 is the best optimal guess at this point and the Navy is already short of its 310-ship count.
Bobbymike,
I would love to see a massive missile launch platform at sea. I always thought it was a loss to kill off the latter Spruance Class ships with their 61-cell Tomahawk launchers. And yes, I think we just agreed on something.
Re: Gen. Cartwright, and this new 'architecture' unveiled for NATO/Euro Cruise-missile/TBM defense... very excellent alternative plan to GBI fiasco. Well calculated revision to flawed GBI missile defense plan.
I've actually been proposing a strategic alternative to GBI for the last couple years (with the whole damn GBI deal being a fiasco) which includes something very close the this phase II specification: i.e., an improved block, dispersed SM-3 ground based system, linked with persistent airborne early warning sensors (IMO, aero-stat borne sensors being the most efficient). SM-3 being a very capable deterrent, combined with PAC-3/MEADS.
I fully support and and concur with the phase III concept too. We'll have to wait and see on phase IV though as it's currently way too hypothetical.
But with regards to the Phase I and Phase II plan, it's a home run and it achieves all the fundamental strategic and tactical objectives that GBI could have only dreamed of achieving, yet in less time and *without Kremlin Tactical Ballistic Missiles* being aimed at Czech Republic and Poland from Kaliningrad... and without possibly involving Belarus into the whole charade!
Furthermore, significant strategic pressure is now off Ukraine by this deal. It will be far more acceptable and plausible for EU to re-engage Ukraine as a valuable, neighboring entity in near-future seeing that the GBI-generated heat is now off.
Cheers to Cartwright~
Maybe for the missile defence job it doesnt even need to be fast, just have the endurance to spent a lot of time on station.
In Europe, only Spain operates full-blown Aegis destroyers (the F100 class with AN/SPY-1D radar).
No fewer than six European navies, however, operate new, highly-advanced anti-air warfare ships that use the SMART-L long-range volume search radar or its derivative, the S1850M.
This radar has already proven (on the Pacific Missile Test Range in Nov 2006) its inherent ability to detect and track live ballistic missile targets. A proposed upgrade package, now under negotiation in the Netherlands, is designed to turn SMART-L into a full-blown BMD Early Warning Sensor with a range of significantly more than 1,000km.
This will open the door for Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK to convert their ships into TBMD Early Warning platforms that can forward-deploy to inform and cue PAC-3 and SM-3 interceptor units to defend Europe against ballistic missile raids.
Many of these same ships are equipped with the Mk 41 Vertical Launching System so they could also be adapted to carry SM-3 interceptors themselves, turning them into even more capable contributors to the resulting multi-national Missile Defense architecture.