Most people agree that this year will be a delicate recovery for airlines and that many factors, including a jump in fuel prices, could easily tip potential profits.
Here in the Middle East, political uncertainties in countries such as Egypt also play a big factor in airlines' success.
Abdul Wahab Teffaha, secretary general of the Arab Air Carriers Organization, spoke at the MRO Middle East Conference today and he presented three scenarios of airline marketshare growth, based on how long political solutions take to solve unrest. In the middle scenario, the most likely, he forecast AACO carriers to grow about 7-10% from 2012-14.
Because of political turmoil in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt last year, he says AACO marketshare dropped about 1%.
"The Arab Spring is shaking foundations and that will have a ripple effect" on airlines and MROs, and it could affect the travel market past 2012, he thinks.