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  • Sobering Statistics
    Posted by Graham Warwick 8:08 PM on Dec 02, 2008

    This was to be the year that Embraer's grand strategy to become a major player in business aviation was to kick into high gear. Well it looks like the company will have to pick a lower gear because of the economic conditions. Embraer still plans to begin deliveries by year-end of its first purpose-designed business aircraft, the Phenom 100 very-light jet, but it has scaled back its shipment forecast for 2009.

    Instead of delivering up to 150 Phenom 100s and 300s in 2009, the company is now looking at 110. Overall, including mid-size Legacy 600s and ultra-lage Lineage 1000s, it expects to deliver 145 bizjets, down about 50 from its original goal. That's still an impressive increase over the 40 or so Embraer expects to deliver this year, but as these charts from a November presentation to analysts indicate, the downturn in business aviation has been rapid and chilling.

    First is the lack of new orders...

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    ...2008 may still look okay, but the first half of the year was good and this chart suggests very few orders have been added in the second half. Then there's business-aviation flying activity...

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    ...with a scarily steep fall-off in aircraft use as operators curtail flying, get rid of aircraft and even close their flight departments. Another chart shows flying is also down in Europe, if not so steeply. Which leads us to the used aircraft market...

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    ...a steep rise in aircraft for sale has pushed the used inventory to a record level. The percentage of the fleet that's for sale isn't at record levels - yet - because the fleet has grown so much in recent years.

    These are sobering statistics indeed. You can check out the complete presentation by Embaer's executive jets EVP Luis Carlos Affonso online here.

    Tags: ba99, Embraer, Phenom

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